Conditionnement

n
k
n1m1
n2m2n3
m3
0,3
0,9
Fnn pn=P(Fn)n>1
n>2pnpn−1
n>1pnn p1
n n i i i
k
1≤k≤n
n>5
j j + 2
n−2
n
A B (Ω,A, P )P(B)6= 0 P(B)6= 1
A B P ⇔PB(A) = PB(A)
A B

a b
Njj An
n
AnNj
P(An)
Bll
P(B0)
N=a+b l ≥1
P(Bl) = b!
NbNl l!−Nl−1 (l−1)!
b
[
l=0
Bl