Simulations d`expériences aléatoires en classe

Simulations d’expériences
aléatoires en classe :
un enjeu didactique pour comprendre la notion de modèle
probabiliste, un outil de résolution de problèmes(*)
Michel Henry(**)
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I – Place de la simulation dans l’enseignement de la statistique
dans le second degré
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536 Dans nos classes APMEP
no496
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II – Un premier exemple simple de simulation6 : le problème du
Grand Duc de Toscane
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Simulations d’expériences aléatoires en classe 537
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538 Dans nos classes APMEP
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06-HenryV-Texte_Mise en page 1 11/11/11 18:17 Page538

III - Détermination d’une probabilité : trois contextes
1- Équiprobabilité postulée des événements élémentaires
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2- Estimation fréquentiste basée sur la loi des grands nombres
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Simulations d’expériences aléatoires en classe 539
APMEP
no496
06-HenryV-Texte_Mise en page 1 11/11/11 18:17 Page539

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3- Méthode Bayésienne
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IV - Contextes didactiques et exemples de simulations
1- Notion de simulation
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540 Dans nos classes APMEP
no496
06-HenryV-Texte_Mise en page 1 11/11/11 18:17 Page540