1. Le*contexte*macroéconomique*est*celui*d’un*ralentissement*structurel**
'
T%C"$5'#6'*)$5%'7%'?@@L.'#4=*D&D8$%')"55%'6'#6)<%8%&9'7$G%)<='7%'#6'9)6_%*9D$)%'W"$'#"$'
6G6$9' =9=' 655$<&=%' C6)' #6' `'a9)69=<$%' ?@?@'b>' +%' 7D*"8%&9N*67)%' 7)%556&9' #%5' <)6&7%5'
D)$%&969$D&5' 7%' #6' CD#$9$W"%' 86*)D=*D&D8$W"%' 7"' C6R5' CD")' #6' 7=*%&&$%' ?@A@N?@?@'
6G6$9'=9='*D886&7='%&'?@@c'C6)'#4%F=*"9$I'E'"&'*D##%*9$I'74%FC%)95'%9'7%'*J%)*J%")5>'/#'
6G6$9' 6#D)5' 7=HD"*J=' 5")' #6' *D&59)"*9$D&' 7%' 9)D$5' 5*=&6)$D5' %&G$56<%6H#%5' CD")'
#4=*D&D8$%')"55%>'2%'C#"5'I6GD)6H#%'96H#6$9'5")'"&'C#6&'7%'8D7%)&$569$D&'7%'#4=*D&D8$%'
6"' 9%)8%' 7"W"%#' #4%IID)9' 74$&G%59$55%8%&9' 54=#%G6$9' *D&5$7=)6H#%8%&9' 6"N7%55"5' 7%' 56'
8DR%&&%' 7%' #D&<' 9%)8%' UE' d@' e' 7"' \/f.' *D&9)%' ?@' e' 6"C6)6G6&9V.' C%)8%996&9' E' #6'
C)D7"*9$G$9=' 7%5' I6*9%")5' 746**=#=)%)' 56' C)D<)%55$D&' U7%' gh' E' gA@' e' C6)' 6&V' *%'W"$'
5D"9%&6$9'76&5'#6'7")=%'"&'96"F'7%'*)D$556&*%'7"'\/f'7%'i'E'c'e>'T6&5'*%5'*D&7$9$D&5.'
#%' )699)6C6<%.' %&' 9%&76&*%.' 7"' &$G%6"' 7%' G$%' 7%5' C6R5' D**$7%&96"F' 7%G%&6$9'
%&G$56<%6H#%'E'#4JD)$OD&'?@d@j?@B@>''
'
+%'5*=&6)$D'I6GD)6H#%'&%'54%59'C65')=6#$5=>'1'#6'5"$9%'7%'#6'*)$5%'I$&6&*$K)%'$&9%)&69$D&6#%'
#%'\/f'6'C#D&<='7%'c.M'e'%&'?@@L'%&'7=C$9'74"&%'$8C"#5$D&'H"7<=96$)%'9D96#$56&9'AA'e'7"'
\/f'5")'#46&&=%>'2%')%HD&7'*D&_D&*9")%#'W"$'6'5"$G$.'I6*$#$9='C6)'#6')%8D&9=%')6C$7%'7%5'
*D")5' 8D&7$6"F' 7%5' 869$K)%5' C)%8$K)%5.' &46' C65' C%)8$5' 7%' )%9)D"G%)' #6' 7R&68$W"%'
%5C=)=%>'26'*)D$556&*%'6'699%$&9'B.h'e'%&'?@A@'C"$5'B'e'%&'?@AA>'-&'?@A?'#%5'C)%8$%)5'
5$<&%5' 74"&' &D"G%6"' )6#%&9$55%8%&9' 5%' 5D&9' I6$9' 5%&9$)' Ug?.h'eV.' *D&I$)8=5' C6)' #6'
#6&<"%")'7%'#6'*)D$556&*%'%&'?@Ad'UgA.d'eV>'
'
1"'7=H"9'7%'#46&&=%'?@AB.'#%'7=I$*$9'7%'*)D$556&*%'*"8"#='7%C"$5'?@@L'C6)')6CCD)9'6"F'
DH_%*9$I5' #%5' C#"5' =#%G=5' 7%' #6' `'a9)69=<$%' ?@?@'b' 699%$<&6$9' ?h' CD$&95' 7%' \/f>' 2%5'
C%)5C%*9$G%5' 7%' *)D$556&*%' CD")' #46&&=%' 54=96H#$556$%&9' E' "&' &$G%6"' &%99%8%&9'
$&5"II$56&9' CD")' )%8C#$)' #%5' DH_%*9$I5' $&$9$6"F.' 8k8%' )=G$5=5' E' #6' H6$55%A'U/0\' ,10.'
?@ABV>' l6$5' 5")9D"9.' #6' 7R&68$W"%' %&' *D")5' I6$56$9' 6CC6)6m9)%' "&' %55D"II#%8%&9'
9%&76&*$%#'*6)' #%5' )%55D)95' C)$&*$C6"F' 7%' #6' *)D$556&*%' 8D&9)6$%&9' 7%5' 5$<&%5'
74=C"$5%8%&9>''''''
'
/#' &4R' 6' C65' 7%' *D&5%&5"5' 5")' #4%FC#$*69$D&' 7%' *%' )6#%&9$55%8%&9>' 2%5' C)$&*$C6#%5'
7$II=)%&*%5' %&9)%' #%5' 6&6#R5%5' *D&*%)&%&9' #%' *6)6*9K)%' 9%8CD)6$)%' D".' 6"' *D&9)6$)%.'
59)"*9")%#' 7"' C)DH#K8%>' \D")' #%5' 9%&6&95' 7%' #6' C)%8$K)%' 9JK5%.' $#' %59' %FC#$*6H#%' C6)'
*%)96$&%5'*6)6*9=)$59$W"%5'7%'#6'CD#$9$W"%'*D&_D&*9")%##%'8%&=%'%&',"55$%>'26'CD#$9$W"%'
8D&=96$)%'7%'#6'H6&W"%'*%&9)6#%'%59'8$5%'%&'*6"5%'Y'%&'86$&9%&6&9'7%5'96"F'74$&9=)k9'
=#%G=5'%9'"&'96"F'7%'*J6&<%'7"')D"H#%'W"65$NI$F%.'%##%'7=*D")6<%)6$9'#6'7R&68$W"%'7%'#6'
7%86&7%' <#DH6#%' Ua6C$).' ?@AB.' C>' A@iNA@cV>' T46"9)%5' 9)6G6"F' 7=5$<&%&9' #6' CD#$9$W"%'
H"7<=96$)%.'W"$'CD")'#$8$9%)'#%'7=I$*$9'7%5'*D8C9%5'C"H#$*5'56&*9"6)$5%)6$9'7%'86&$K)%'
%F*%55$G%' #%5' ID&75' 59)"*9")%#5' %&' #$8$96&9' #%5' 7=C%&5%5' 9D"9' %&' $&9)D7"$56&9' 7%5'
C)DH#K8%5' 7%' 5=W"%&n6<%' 7%5' <)6&75' 9)6G6"F' 74$&I)659)"*9")%.' *D&9)$H"6&9' 6$&5$' E'
#$8$9%)'#6'*)D$556&*%'UaJ$)DG.'?@ABV>'''
'
a6&5'7=&$%)'#%")'C%)9$&%&*%'6"F'I6*9%")5'*D&_D&*9")%#5.'&D5'9)6G6"F'8%99%&9'%&'6G6&9'
7%5' =#=8%&95' 74%FC#$*69$D&' 59)"*9")%#5>' 1' C6)9$)' 74"&%' 6&6#R5%' 7%' #4=C"$5%8%&9' 7%5'
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"!$%&'!()!'%*!+(&)'')!+,!-%&,.!()!/+0*12341)&'5%,&6!()!7,0*!#8"9:!!;<+(0.0&!3%,10*)!+!4=%>,4!()'!1+,?!()!
@&%0''+*@)!()!A!B!C!D!E+&!+*F!!