Mr. Serge Planton, Météo France - “Adaptation to heat

Adaptation to heat waves occurrence
in France
S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*
*Météo-France, CNRM
** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement
Climatique » (France)
 The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe
 First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence
Adaptation to heat waves occurrence
in France
S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*
*Météo-France, CNRM
** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement
Climatique » (France)
 The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe
 First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence
Mean June-July-August temperatures in France (°C)
The last heat waves
850Hpa June-July-August Anomalies
1976
1983
1994
2003
Temperature in Chartres
o
ECMWF
40
o
35
o
30
9 days with
Tx>35C
o
Tn>20C
25
Obs.
o
20
2 day for.
o
15
5 day for.
o
10
August 7
August 14
June-July-August temperature in France (°C)
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
The 2003 heat wave in Western
Europe
 For the period running from June 1st to August 31st,
the year 2003 is the warmest ever recorded in France.
The warming is singular by its amplitude and its
extension over Western Europe.
 The hottest period appeared to be predictable a few
days in advance.
 Some regional climate change scénarios suggest that
summers as warm or warmer than 2003 summer
might occur every two years on average after 2050 in
France (Déqué 2004) or in Switzerland (Schär et al,
2004).
Adaptation to heat waves occurrence
in France
S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*
*Météo-France, CNRM
** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement
Climatique » (France)
 The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe
 First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence
Post-heat wave reports and actions
 Reports:
29 August 2003: Institut de Veille Sanitaire.
25 September 2003: INSERM.
November 2003: Ville de Paris.
3 February 2004: Sénat.
3 March 2004: Assemblée Nationale.
August 2003 temperature and mortality
Ile-de-France
(INSERM, 2004)
August 2003 temperature and mortality
Rhône-Alpes
(INSERM, 2004)
Post-heat wave reports and actions
 Reports:
29 August 2003: Institut de Veille Sanitaire.
25 September 2003: INSERM.
November 2003: Ville de Paris.
3 February 2004: Sénat.
3 March 2004: Assemblée Nationale.
 Action plans:
5 May 2004: Heat wave plan for old people’s houses.
6 May 2004: Heat wave plan for medical urgency
services and hospitals of Paris and its surroundings.
1 June-30 September 2004: French alert system
for heat waves and health.
2 June 2004: Heat wave plan for Paris.
As part of the National heat wave plan
The national heat wave plan
 Level 1:
Seasonal survey from 1 June to 30 September to
check up the different action plans and to inform
the public for prevention.
 Level 2:
To mobilize public services from local to national
scales when an overtaking of biometeorological
thresholds is forecasted in the next 3 days.
 Level 3:
To apply medical and social measures when an
heatwave is occurring.
 Level 4:
To apply exceptional measures when an heatwave
is extending and lasting .
The french alert system for heat waves and health
Established by the « Institut de Veille Sanitaire » and
Météo-France to alert authorities with 3-day anticipation.
 Method:
Definition of a biometeorological indicator: a
combination of daily minimum and maximum
temperatures averaged over 3 days.
Construction of a map of threshold values of this
indicator for a given overmortality percentage.
 Application:
Activation of Level 2 of the national heatwave plan
when forecasted indicators (1, 2 or 3 days in
advance) overtake the threshold values.
The vigilance map elaborated with 1-day
temperature forecasts for public information.
First adaptation measures to heat
wave occurrence
 A combination of decision levels from local to
national with a national coordination.
 A combination of anticipation levels
Very short term: medical and social measures …
Short term: 3-day anticipation of heat waves …
Long term: prevention by public information …
 An adaptation to climate change as heat waves will
become more frequent and as decision makers are
generally aware of this.