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Les nouveaux scénarios climatiques du GIEC
The new IPCC climate scenarios
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Résumé
4AF?8647E87HCEB=8G<AG8EA4G<BA4?#& BHC?87
#B78?AG8E6B@C4E<FBA&EB=86G 8G8ACETC4E4G<BA4HCEB
6;4<AE4CCBEG7H78HK@B7U?8F6?<@4G<DH8F9E4AS4<F
BAGTGT@<F8AbHIE8CBHEET4?<F8EHA8AF8@5?878F<@H
?4G<BAF 7H 6?<@4G C4FFT 8G 9HGHE "8F F6TA4E<BF 7H 6?<@4G
9HGHE FBAG 54FTF FHE 78F GE4=86GB<E8F 7fTIB?HG<BA 7H 5<?4A
E47<4G<9 78 ?4 G8EE8 (8CE8F8AG4G<I8 BA68AGE4G<BA
&4G;J4LF
BH (&F 4FFB6<TFQ78ABHI84HKF6TA4E<BF
4AG;EBC<DH8F7fTIB?HG<BA78FT@<FF<BAF8G6BA68AGE4G<BAF
78:4MQ8998G78F8EE87f4TEBFB?F8G78:4M6;<@<DH8@8AG
46G<9F4<AF<DHfQ78FF6TA4E<BF7fHG<?<F4G<BA78FG8EE8F"8F
CE8@<UE8F4A4?LF8F@BAGE8AGHAET6;4H998@8AGC?4ATG4<E8
9HGHE6B@CE<F8AGE8\8G\Q\FHE?f8AF8@5?87H
..8F<U6?8F8?BA?8F6TA4E<B8G?8@B7U?8HG<?<FTF&?HF<8HEF
64E46GTE<FG<DH8F78FCEB=86G<BAF6?<@4G<DH8F4AGTE<8HE8F8G
7H EY?8 78F 46G<I<GTF ;H@4<A8F 74AF ?8F 6;4A:8@8AGF
6?<@4G<DH8F ET68AGF FBAG 6BA9<E@T8F @4<F 78 ABHI84HK
ETFH?G4GFBAG4HFF<TGTB5G8AHF:ER68Q68G8K8E6<688F
F<@H?4G<BAF C8E@8GGEBAG 4HFF< 78 6BA7H<E8 78 ABHI8??8F
TGH78F 78 ET:<BA4?<F4G<BA 8G 7f<@C46G 78F 6;4A:8@8AGF
6?<@4G<DH8F CE8A4AG 8A 6B@CG8 4HFF< 5<8A ?8F CB?<G<DH8F
6?<@4G<DH8F7f4GGTAH4G<BADH87f474CG4G<BA
Mots-clés
 F6TA4E<BF (& 8998G 78 F8EE8 6?<@4G
F<@H?4G<BAF@B7U?8F:?B54?#&
Abstract
-<G;<A G;8 6BAG8KG B9 G;8 #& <AG8EA4G<BA4? CEB=86G
BHC?87#B78?AG8E6B@C4E<FBA&EB=86G4A7<ACE8C4E4
G<BA GB G;8 A8KG & E8CBEG GJB E8A6; 6?<@4G8 @B78?F
;4I8588AHF87GBC8E9BE@4A8AF8@5?8B9C4FG4A79HGHE8
6?<@4G8 F<@H?4G<BAF *;8 9HGHE8 6?<@4G8 F68A4E<BF 4E8
54F87BA84EG;fFE47<4G<BA5H7:8GG<@878C8A78AGGE4=86GB
E<8F (8CE8F8AG4G<I8 BA68AGE4G<BA &4G;J4LF BE (&F
4FFB6<4G87GBA8J4AG;EBCB:8A<6:E88A;BHF8:4F8F48EB
FB?F4A7 6;8@<64??L46G<I8:4F8F8@<FF<BAF4A76BA68A
GE4G<BAFF68A4E<BF4FJ8??4F?4A7HF8F68A4E<BF*;89<EFG
4A4?LF8FF;BJ49HGHE8:?B54?J4E@<A:58GJ88A\4A7
\GB\BI8EG;8J;B?8FG68AGHEL466BE7<A:GBG;8
F68A4E<B BE @B78? HF87 )8I8E4? 6;4E46G8E<FG<6F B9 CE8
I<BHF6?<@4G8CEB=86G<BAF4A7G;8EB?8B9;H@4A46G<I<G<8F<A
E868AG 6?<@4G8 6;4A:8F 4E8 6BA9<E@87 5HG A8J E8FH?GF
;4I8 4?FB 588A B5G4<A87 G;4A>F GB G;<F 8K8E6<F8 *;8F8
F<@H?4G<BAFJ<??4?FB4??BJA8JE8:<BA4?<M4G<BA4A76?<@4G8
6;4A:8<@C46GFGH7<8FG4><A:<AGB466BHAG4FJ8??@<G<:4
G<BA4F474CG4G<BA6?<@4G8CB?<6<8F
Keywords
& F68A4E<BF (& :E88A;BHF8 89986G
6?<@4G8F<@H?4G<BAF@B78?F:?B54?#&
C&?4AGBA'3C7<GB&4:8

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CLIMAT
Introduction
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7fTI4?H8E ?f<A9BE@4G<BA F6<8AG<9<DH8 8G FB6<BT6BAB
@<DH8FHE?86;4A:8@8AG6?<@4G<DH8F8F<@C46GF8G
?8F7<99TE8AG8FBCG<BAFCBHE?f4GGTAH8EBHFfL474CG8E
)BA8E4CCBEG7fTI4?H4G<BA7BAG?8CE8@<8EIB?8GFHE
?8F 54F8F F6<8AG<9<DH8F 7H 6;4A:8@8AG 6?<@4G<DH8
F8E4 CH5?<T Q ?4 @<F8CG8@5E8  98E4 ?TG4G 78F
6BAA4<FF4A68F466H@H?T8F4H6BHEF7868F78EA<UE8F
4AAT8FB@@868?44TGT?864FCBHE?8CET6T78AG
E4CCBEG7812?46B@@HA4HGTF6<8A
G<9<DH8 Ff8FG @B5<?<FT8 8A C4EG<6H?<8E 4H GE4I8EF 7H
&EB:E4@@8 #BA7<4? 78 (86;8E6;8 FHE ?8 ?<@4G
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A4G<BA4?78 F<@H?4G<BA7H 6?<@4GC4FFT 8G9HGHE 7BAG
?f4A4?LF8 C8E@8GGE4 78 6BAGE<5H8E Q 68GG8 ABHI8??8
FLAG;UF8 7H  8G 8AF8@5?8 78 F<@H?4G<BAF
4CC8?T #&
BHC?87 #B78? AG8E6B@C4E<FBA
&EB=86G
I4C8E@8GGE8 7f4CCBEG8EHA ABHI84HE8:4E7
FHE ?8 ?<8A 8AGE8 ?8F 46G<I<GTF ;H@4<A8F 8G ?8 6?<@4G
DH868FB<G4H6BHEF78F78EA<UE8F7T68AA<8F@4<F
FHEGBHG 8A F8 CEB=8G4AG FHE ?8F 7T68AA<8F 8G F<U6?8F
9HGHEF
8G 8K8E6<68 6B@@8 ?8F CET6T78AGF 7H @V@8
GLC8 4 TGT ET4?<FT Q C4EG<E 78 @B7U?8F AH@TE<DH8F
:?B54HK7HFLFGU@86?<@4G<DH81 84A78?8G#BFF8E<
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GE<7<@8AF<BAA8??8F 78 ?f4G@BFC;UE8 8G 78 ?fB6T4A 8A
G8A4AG 6B@CG8 78F <AG8E46G<BAF 4I86 ?8F FHE9468F
6BAG<A8AG4?8F?4:?46878@8E8G?8GE4AFCBEG78?f84H
C4E?8F9?8HI8F?FE8CETF8AG8AG4HFF<?8F6BHC?4:8F
8AGE8?46;<@<84G@BFC;TE<DH8?8F4TEBFB?F?8E4LBA
A8@8AG4G@BFC;TE<DH88G?8FAH4:8F8G68EG4<AF<AGU
:E8AG HA8 E8CETF8AG4G<BA 7H 6L6?8 7H 64E5BA8 "4
E8CETF8AG4G<BA 78F CEB68FFHF 78 6;<@<8 GEBCBFC;T
E<DH8 Af8FG 68C8A74AG C4F 8A6BE8 FH99<F4@@8AG
7TG4<??T8CBHEDH8?8FF<@H?4G<BAFCH<FF8AGVGE87<E86
G8@8AGHG<?<FT8FCBHEGE4<G8E?4DH8FG<BA78?f<@C46G7H
6;4A:8@8AG6?<@4G<DH8FHE?4DH4?<GT78?f4<E8FCEB
=8GF78E86;8E6;845BE78AG68GG8DH8FG<BA8AET:<BA4
?<F4AG ?8F ETFH?G4GF 78F F<@H?4G<BAF 6?<@4G<DH8F
:?B54?8FABG4@@8AGFHE?fHEBC88G8A94<F4AG<AG8E
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6B@C?8K8F
69 4EG<6?878B?8GG874AF68AH@TEB
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E<BF 7fT@<FF<BAF 4AG;EBC<DH8F DH< BAG TGT HG<?<FTF
F86G<BAFH<I4AG8Q?4CETF8AG4G<BA78?f8K8E6<6878
F<@H?4G<BA7H6?<@4GDH<4TGTET4?<FTQC4EG<E7868F
F6TA4E<BF8G8AC4EG<6H?<8EQ?46BAGE<5HG<BA78FTDH<
C8F9E4AS4<F8FF86G<BA8GQ?f8KCBFT78DH8?DH8F
ETFH?G4GF@4EDH4AGFG<ETF78FF<@H?4G<BAF7868FTDH<
C8FF86G<BA
Les scénarios d’émissions anthropiques
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8998G78F8EE8TG4<8AG7f45BE7TG45?<FQC4EG<E7f;LCB
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"8FCEB=86G<BAF6?<@4G<DH8FTG4<8AG?8FETCBAF8F78F
@B7U?8F AH@TE<DH8F Q 68F F6TA4E<BF 7fT@<FF<BAF
4AF?8647E878#&?8F:EBHC8F78GE4I4<?<AG8E
A4G<BA4HK BAG E8G8AH HA8 ABHI8??8 4CCEB6;8
#B7T?<F4G8HEF7H6?<@4G8GT6BAB@<FG8FBAGGE4I4<??T
8AC4E4??U?8?8FCE8@<8EFCBHE89986GH8E78FCEB=86
G<BAF6?<@4G<DH8F?8FF86BA7FCBHET?45BE8E78FF6T
A4E<BFFB6<BT6BAB@<DH8FQC4EG<E78]GE4=86GB<E8F^
7fTIB?HG<BA78F6BA68AGE4G<BAF78:4MQ8998G78F8EE8
?8F (&F CBHE
] (8CE8F8AG4G<I8 BA68AGE4G<BA
&4G;J4LF^
8FGE4=86GB<E8FCEBI<8AA8AG78FETFH?G4GF
78FE86;8E6;8F?8FC?HFET68AG8F@8AT8FQC4EG<E78
@B7U?8F<AGT:E4AG?8FTIB?HG<BAFFB6<BT6BAB@<DH8F
8G6?<@4G<DH8FFBHFHA89BE@8E8?4G<I8@8AGF<@C?<9<T8
8GG87T@4E6;8C4E4??U?8C8E@8G4HKT6BAB@<FG8F
7fTG45?<E78FF6TA4E<BFDH<8KC?BE8AGGBHG8F?8FCBFF<
5<?<GTF 7fTIB?HG<BAF G86;AB?B:<DH8F 8G FB6<BT6BAB
@<DH8FC8E@8GG4AG78E8A7E86B@CG87868F(&F
ABG4@@8AG 68HK DH< CE8AA8AG 8A 6B@CG8 78F CB?<
G<DH8F 6?<@4G<DH8F C8E@8GG4AG 78 ET7H<E8 ?8F T@<F
F<BAF78:4MQ8998G78F8EE88GG8;LCBG;UF8Af4I4<G
C4FTGT8KC?BET8?BEF78FCET6T78AGF8K8E6<68F&4E
4<??8HEF?47T@4E6;8C4E4??U?8Af<@CBF8C?HF78CEB
6T78E Q 78 ABHI8??8F F<@H?4G<BAF 6?<@4G<DH8F 4CEUF
GBHG8@B7<9<64G<BA78FF6TA4E<BFFB6<BT6BAB@<DH8F
8 C?HF ?8F F<@H?4G<BAF 6?<@4G<DH8F ET4?<FT8F 4I86
?8F F6TA4E<BF (& CBHEEBAG VGE8 ET<AG8ECETGT8F 8A
G8E@8FFB6<BT6BAB@<DH8FQ?f<FFH878FGE4I4HK78F
T6BAB@<FG8F
"8F F6TA4E<BF (&F C8HI8AG VGE8 GE47H<GF 8A
G8E@8F78@B7<9<64G<BA7H5<?4AE47<4G<978?4C?4AUG8
68DH<C8E@8G78?8F6B@C4E8E4I86?8F4A6<8AFF6T
A4E<BF7fT@<FF<BA17<GF)()CBHE
]`)C86<4?(8CBEG
BA @<FF<BAF )68A4E<BF` ^
$4><g8ABI<g 8G )J4EG
2 9<:HE4AG 74AF ?8F 78HK 78EA<8EF E4CCBEGF 7H
8G'H4GE8F6TA4E<BF(&78ET9T
E8A68BAGTGTE8G8AHFCBHE?8CEB=8G#&C4E@<C?HF
78  6BHIE4AG ?8F 4AAT8F  Q  *EB<F
7f8AGE88HK7BAA8AG?<8HQ78FGE4=86GB<E8F7fTIB?HG<BA
786BA68AGE4G<BAF78:4MQ8998G78 F8EE8 6B@C4E4
5?8FQ68??8FHG<?<FT8FCBHE?8F78HK78EA<8EFE4CCBEGF
7H7HCB<AG78IH878?4C8EGHE54G<BA7H5<?4A
E47<4G<978?4G8EE8G45?84H8G9<:HE8"8F6TA4E<B
?8 C?HF T?8IT (& 8FG GBHG89B<F HA C8H C?HF
FTIUE8DH8?f4A6<8AF6TA4E<B"8F6TA4E<B?8C?HF
54F(&Af4DH4AGQ?H<C4F7fTDH<I4?8AGC4E@<
?8F4A6<8AFF6TA4E<BF?6BEE8FCBA7Q78GEUF94<5?8F
T@<FF<BAF78:4MQ8998G78F8EE8DH<A8C8HI8AGVGE8
B5G8AH8F DH8 C4E ?f4CC?<64G<BA 78 CB?<G<DH8F 6?<@4
G<DH8F8K<:84AG8F
C&?4AGBA'3C7<GB&4:8

 &%""+*%$*#%)&O('+$+#O(%)&O" +$
CLIMAT
a6;46HA7868F(&F6BEE8FCBA78AGHA8GE4=86
GB<E87fTIB?HG<BA78FT@<FF<BAF8G6BA68AGE4G<BAF78
:4M Q 8998G 78 F8EE8 7<BKL78 78 64E5BA8 BH %
@TG;4A8BHCEBGBKL787f4MBG8BH$%_4<AF<
DHfHA8 GE4=86GB<E8 7fTIB?HG<BA 78 ?fB66HC4G<BA 78F
FB?F*BHF?8F@B7U?8FBAGHG<?<FT?8FGE4=86GB<E8F78
6BA68AGE4G<BAF7894SBAQCBHIB<E6B@C4E8E?f8AF8@
5?8 78F ETFH?G4GF +A FBHF8AF8@5?8 78 F<@H?4G<BA
4I86?8F@B7U?8F<A6?H4AG?86L6?87H64E5BA84TGT
ET4?<FTQC4EG<E78FGE4=86GB<E8F7fT@<FF<BACBHEDH4A
G<9<8E ?8F ETGEB46G<BAF 8AGE8 ?8 6?<@4G 8G ?8 6L6?8 7H
64E5BA8 8 @V@8 ?fHG<?<F4G<BA 78F F6TA4E<BF 78
6;4A:8@8AG7fB66HC4G<BA78FFB?F8FGE8FGT8BCG<BA
A8??868EG4<AF@B7U?8F8GF<@H?4G<BAF78#&?8F
CE8A4AG8A6B@CG874AF?8FF6TA4E<BF7H6?<@4G9HGHE
Les simulations climatiques globales
a?474G878ET746G<BA7868G4EG<6?8HA8FB<K4A
G4<A878@B7U?8F6?<@4G<DH8F6BHC?TF@<F8AbHIE8
C4E:EBHC8F78E86;8E6;86?<@4G<DH8BAGTGTHG<?<
FTF CBHE ET4?<F8E GBHG BH C4EG<8 78F F<@H?4G<BAF 78
#&&4E@<8HK?8@B7U?8$(##7TI8?BCCT
Nom Changement du bilan radiatif Concentration (en partie par million) Trajectoire
(forçage radiatif)
(& -@8A 8D%8A 6EB<FF4AG8
(& N-@ 4HA<I84H N8D%4HA<I84H )G45<?<F4G<BAF4AF7TC4FF8@8AG
78FG45<?<F4G<BA4CEUF 78FG45<?<F4G<BA4CEUF
(& N-@ 4HA<I84H N8D%4HA<I84H )G45<?<F4G<BAF4AF7TC4FF8@8AG
78FG45<?<F4G<BA4CEUF 78FG45<?<F4G<BA4CEUF
(& &<6QN-@ 4I4AGCH<F7T6?<A &<6N8D%4I4AGCH<F7T6?<A &<6CH<F7T6?<A
8D%8FGHA845ETI<4G<BACBHETDH<I4?8AG%?Ff4:<G78?46BA68AGE4G<BA78%TDH<I4?8AG8Q?4GBG4?<GT78F:4MQ8998G78F8EE88AG8E@8F789BES4:8E47<4G<9
*45?84H
&E<A6<C4?8F64E46GTE<FG<DH8F78FDH4GE8F6TA4E<BF(&
#4<A6;4E46G8E<FG<6FB9G;89BHE(&F68A4E<BF
<:HE8
;4A:8@8AG7H5<?4AE47<4G<978?4G8EE84HFB@@8G78?f4G@BFC;UE8BH]9BES4:8E47<4G<9^8A-@<A7H<GC4E?8F46G<I<GTF
;H@4<A8FCEUF?8FGE4<GF6BAG<AHFE8CETF8AG8AG?8FABHI84HKF6TA4E<BF7<GF ](8CE8F8AG4G<I8BA68AGE4G<BA&4G;J4LF^
8G?8FGE4<GFCB<AG<??TF?8FF6TA4E<BF)()
;4A:8<AG;884EG;fFE47<4G<BA5H7:8G4GG;8GBCB9G;84G@BFC;8E8BEdE47<4G<I89BE6<A:e<A-@<A7H6875L4AG;EBCB:8A<6
46G<I<G<8F9G8EG;86BAG<AHBHF?<A8FE8CE8F8AGG;8FB64??87d(8CE8F8AG4G<I8BA68AGE4G<BA&4G;J4LFeA8JF68A4E<BF4A7
G;874F;87?<A8FG;8)()F68A4E<BF&
C&?4AGBA'3C7<GB&4:8

&%""+*%$*#%)&O('+$+#O(%)&O" +$ 
CLIMAT
C4E ?8F TDH<C8F 78 #TGTBE4A68 8A 6B??45BE4G<BA
4I86?8()8G?f&)"1,B?7B<E8
8G4? 2 8G
?8@B7U?8&)"#7TI8?BCCTC4E?f&)"1H9E8FA8
8G
4?
28F78HK@B7U?8F4I4<8AGTGTHG<?<FTF74AF
78F6BA9<:HE4G<BAF8GI8EF<BAF7<99TE8AG8FCBHE?f8K8E
6<6878F<@H?4G<BACET6T78AG7H@V@8GLC874G4AG78
#&"4CE8@<UE8ABHI84HGT8FGDH8?4C?4
AUG88FG@4<AG8A4AG7T6E<G874AF68F@B7U?8F4I86
HA8 ETFB?HG<BA C?HF 9<A8 4AF ?8 64F 7H @B7U?8
$(##?4G4<??878?4@4<??8T?T@8AG4<E87864?6H?
74AF?f4G@BFC;UE8\8G68??878?4@4<??87864?6H?
74AF?fB6T4A\BAG8A8998GTGT7<I<FT8FC4E78HK
\8G\4AF?864F7H@B7U?8&)"#6f8FG?8
AB@5E8 78 A<I84HK I8EG<64HK 78 64?6H? DH< 4 TGT
@H?G<C?<TC4E78HKC4FF4AG78Q"8F@B7U?8F
7B<I8AG E8CETF8AG8E 78 GEUF AB@5E8HK CEB68FFHF
7LA4@<DH8F C;LF<DH8F BH 6;<@<DH8F 4L4AG HA
<@C46G CBG8AG<8? FHE ?8 6?<@4G "8 C?HF FBHI8AG 68F
CEB68FFHF9BAG<AG8EI8A<E78FT6;8??8FFC4G<4?8FC?HF
C8G<G8FDH8?8F7<@8AF<BAF78F@4<??8F7864?6H?7fBZ
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