African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun
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African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine Tendance des précipitations 1970-1990 / 1950-1970 (% / 1950-1990) Annual rainfall & discharge index: Niger at Malanville: 2.106 km² Factor 2 Important role of the West African monsoon in atmospheric chemistry and Saharan aerosol emission/transport CO at 700 hPa: annual mean Activité de la mousson africaine et cyclones tropicaux AMMA General Objectives • To improve our knowledge of the West African monsoon (atmospheric, chemical, hydrological components), and of its dependance to ocean-atmosphere-land interactions • To improve the scientific bases which will enable to address the problems of water resources, food security and public health in West Africa • To integrate this multi-disciplinary research in forecast and decision activities Outils et Méthodes La sphère géophysique La dimension humaine The geophysical sphere Process studies: Convection and atmospheric processes [WP2.1] Oceanic Processes [WP2.2] Physical and biological processes over land-surfaces [WP2.3] Aerosol and chemical processes in the atmosphere [WP2.4] Integrative science: Process studies are only the first step towards a better understanding and prediction of the African monsoon West African Monsoon and the global climate [WP1.1] The water cycle [WP1.2] Surface atmosphere feedbacks [WP1.3] Scaling issues in the West African Monsoon [WP1.4] Evolution des précipitations Sahel & Côte Guinéenne Températures surface de mer Vegetation change Changement climatique ? ? ? ? Prévisions saisonnières The human dimension Impact studies : Land productivity [WP3.1] Water resources [WP3.3] Health impacts [WP3.4] Human processes and food security [WP3.2] The socio/economic consequences of environmental changes, land use and human activities are the aim. Evaluations of the potential of early warning systems and adaptation strategies will be a key outcome. African partners are involved in these WPs and they are key to ensuring the relevance and long term impact of AMMA . Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale: l’approche multi-échelle Grande échelle Echelle fine ESPACE Variabilité climatique Désagrégation TEMPS IMPACTS Agrégation Echelle fine Activités humaines Distribution des pluies à l’échelle quotidienne 1968 Fluctuations pluviométriques à : ~ 15 jours et ~ 40 jours Détermination/Prévision du début de la saison des pluies Spatial scales of observed rainfall variability 20 Regional scale: meridional gradient area NOUAKCHOTT 15DAKAR NIAMEY BANJUL BAMAKO OUAGADOUGOU BISSAU Baisse de la pluviométrie saisonnière dans les pays du Sahel Isohyètes moyennes choisies des périodes 1950-67 et 1968-97 NDJAMENA 10 isohyètes moyennes de la période 1950-67 en millimètres isohyètes moyennes de la période 1968-97 en millimètres -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Local scale: the coupling scale is central for hydrology in the Sahel 20 km 1992 100 NIAMEY O OUAGADOUGOU NDJAMENA 80 Min. : 410 mm 60 40 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Max. : 782 mm 20 1992 0 -40 -20 0 20 40 1998 60 80 100 120 20 25 Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale: l’approche multi-échelle Grande échelle Echelle fine ESPACE Variabilité climatique Désagrégation TEMPS IMPACTS Agrégation Echelle fine Activités humaines Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale: l’approche multi-échelle Grande échelle Echelle fine ESPACE Variabilité climatique Désagrégation TEMPS IMPACTS Agrégation Echelle fine Activités humaines Integrating basic research and application Tools and methods : Model evaluation and data assimilation [WP4.1] Field campaigns [WP4.2] Satellite remote sensing [WP4.3] Data base and historical data [WP4.4] Demonstration : Weather to climate forecasting [WP5.1] Early warning systems [WP5.2] Capacity building : Environmental monitoring [WP6.1] University programs & summer schools [WP6.2] Integrating basic research and application Tools and methods : Model evaluation and data assimilation [WP4.1] Field campaigns [WP4.2] Satellite remote sensing [WP4.3] Data base and historical data [WP4.4] Demonstration : Weather to climate forecasting [WP5.1] Early warning systems [WP5.2] Capacity building : Environmental monitoring [WP6.1] University programs & summer schools [WP6.2] Only the integration of the basic research in the activities of the African agencies will ensure a long lasting impact. SPACE (km) Observations strategy: scales nesting 104 Supra-regional (WA + Ocean) Long term Observation Period Catch, Idaf, Aeronet Impetus, Pirata, …. Regional (WA) 103 EnhancedObs. Period SOP0: Dry phase Mesoscale SOP1: Monsoon Onset SO P SOP2: Monsoon Max 102 0 0 SOP3: Late Monsoon 1 2 3 IOPs IOPs IOPs 101 Local 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 TIME (Years) For the geophysical research a major field campaign was organized in 2006 Observational networks allowed to cover the regional scales. Ships, aircrafts and radars allowed to follow individual events. The African Partnership A new generation of young African scientists and teams, with national research projects and some international collaborations : A potential which need to be supported (education, training, funding) and whose research has begun to be coordinated AMMA-NET: network of 200 African researchers created en 2002 to favor intra-Africa collaborations and North-South exchanges an African Implementation Plan has been written et evaluated Implication of regional centers (ACMAD, AGRYMET, EIER, CERMES, …) as well as ASECNA, National Directions of Meteorology and Hydrology Capacity-building : African scientists transfer knowledge of the northern countries to local Applications through their own expertise : maintenance and improvement of forecasting and early warning systems based upon local users feedback Collaboration of African teams and regional centers in the implementation (LOP, EOP, SOP) and monitoring (EOP & LOP) of the observational networks Perspectives 1974 GATE 2005 AMMA - dégradation du climat - dégradation des réseaux d’observations - faiblesse de l’organisation de la recherche 2036 ? EXP ? - Réseau AMMANET - Programme scientifique validé - Réseaux d’observations renforcés - Base de données très importante AMMA ----> : - Meilleure compréhension des mécanismes de la mousson - Amélioration des prévisions météorologiques/climatiques - Meilleure expertise pour traiter la question des Impacts et pour la prise de décisions - Meilleure expertise pour soumettre des projets aux bailleurs de fonds Mais nécessité d’un soutien des états africains pour pérenniser ces efforts !
