African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun

publicité
African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser
Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse
Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano
Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen
Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos
Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine
Tendance des précipitations
1970-1990 / 1950-1970 (% / 1950-1990)
Annual rainfall & discharge index:
Niger at Malanville: 2.106 km²
Factor 2
Important role of the West African monsoon in atmospheric
chemistry and Saharan aerosol emission/transport
CO at 700 hPa: annual mean
Activité de la mousson africaine
et cyclones tropicaux
AMMA
General Objectives
• To improve our knowledge of the West African monsoon
(atmospheric, chemical, hydrological components), and of
its dependance to ocean-atmosphere-land interactions
• To improve the scientific bases which will enable to
address the problems of water resources, food security and
public health in West Africa
• To integrate this multi-disciplinary research in forecast and
decision activities
Outils et
Méthodes
La sphère géophysique
La dimension humaine
The geophysical sphere
Process studies:
Convection and atmospheric processes
[WP2.1]
Oceanic Processes [WP2.2]
Physical and biological processes over
land-surfaces [WP2.3]
Aerosol and chemical processes in the
atmosphere [WP2.4]
Integrative science:
Process studies are only
the first step towards a
better understanding and
prediction of the African
monsoon
West African Monsoon and the global
climate [WP1.1]
The water cycle [WP1.2]
Surface atmosphere feedbacks [WP1.3]
Scaling issues in the West African
Monsoon [WP1.4]
Evolution des précipitations
Sahel & Côte Guinéenne
Températures surface de mer
Vegetation change
Changement climatique ?
?
?
?
Prévisions saisonnières
The human dimension
Impact studies :
Land productivity [WP3.1]
Water resources [WP3.3]
Health impacts [WP3.4]
Human processes and food
security [WP3.2]
The socio/economic consequences
of environmental changes, land use
and human activities are the aim.
Evaluations of the potential of early
warning systems and adaptation
strategies will be a key outcome.
African partners are
involved in these WPs and
they are key to ensuring
the relevance and long
term impact of AMMA .
Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale:
l’approche multi-échelle
Grande
échelle
Echelle
fine
ESPACE
Variabilité
climatique
Désagrégation
TEMPS
IMPACTS
Agrégation
Echelle
fine
Activités
humaines
Distribution des pluies à l’échelle quotidienne
1968
Fluctuations pluviométriques à :
~ 15 jours et ~ 40 jours
Détermination/Prévision du début de la saison des pluies
Spatial scales of observed rainfall variability
20
Regional scale: meridional gradient area
NOUAKCHOTT
15DAKAR
NIAMEY
BANJUL
BAMAKO
OUAGADOUGOU
BISSAU
Baisse de la pluviométrie saisonnière dans les pays du Sahel
Isohyètes moyennes choisies des périodes 1950-67 et 1968-97
NDJAMENA
10
isohyètes moyennes de la période 1950-67 en millimètres
isohyètes moyennes de la période 1968-97 en millimètres
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Local scale: the coupling scale is central for hydrology in the Sahel
20 km
1992
100
NIAMEY
O
OUAGADOUGOU
NDJAMENA
80
Min. : 410 mm
60
40
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Max. : 782 mm
20
1992
0
-40
-20
0
20
40
1998
60
80
100
120
20
25
Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale:
l’approche multi-échelle
Grande
échelle
Echelle
fine
ESPACE
Variabilité
climatique
Désagrégation
TEMPS
IMPACTS
Agrégation
Echelle
fine
Activités
humaines
Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale:
l’approche multi-échelle
Grande
échelle
Echelle
fine
ESPACE
Variabilité
climatique
Désagrégation
TEMPS
IMPACTS
Agrégation
Echelle
fine
Activités
humaines
Integrating basic research and application
Tools and methods :
Model evaluation and data
assimilation [WP4.1]
Field campaigns [WP4.2]
Satellite remote sensing
[WP4.3]
Data base and
historical data [WP4.4]
Demonstration :
Weather to climate
forecasting [WP5.1]
Early warning systems
[WP5.2]
Capacity building :
Environmental monitoring
[WP6.1]
University programs &
summer schools [WP6.2]
Integrating basic research and application
Tools and methods :
Model evaluation and data
assimilation [WP4.1]
Field campaigns [WP4.2]
Satellite remote sensing
[WP4.3]
Data base and
historical data [WP4.4]
Demonstration :
Weather to climate
forecasting [WP5.1]
Early warning systems
[WP5.2]
Capacity building :
Environmental monitoring
[WP6.1]
University programs &
summer schools [WP6.2]
Only the integration of the basic research in the
activities of the African agencies will ensure a long
lasting impact.
SPACE
(km)
Observations strategy: scales nesting
104 Supra-regional
(WA + Ocean)
Long term Observation Period Catch, Idaf, Aeronet
Impetus, Pirata, ….
Regional
(WA)
103
EnhancedObs. Period
SOP0: Dry phase
Mesoscale
SOP1: Monsoon Onset
SO P
SOP2: Monsoon Max
102
0
0
SOP3: Late Monsoon
1 2 3
IOPs
IOPs
IOPs
101 Local
2002
2005
2006
2007
2008
TIME
(Years)
For the geophysical research a major
field campaign was organized in 2006
Observational
networks allowed to
cover the regional
scales.
Ships, aircrafts and
radars allowed to
follow individual
events.
The African Partnership
 A new generation of young African scientists and teams, with national research
projects and some international collaborations :
A potential which need to be supported (education, training, funding) and
whose research has begun to be coordinated
AMMA-NET: network of 200 African researchers created en 2002
to favor intra-Africa collaborations and North-South exchanges
an African Implementation Plan has been written et evaluated
Implication of regional centers (ACMAD, AGRYMET, EIER, CERMES, …) as
well as ASECNA, National Directions of Meteorology and Hydrology
 Capacity-building : African scientists transfer knowledge of the northern countries to
local Applications through their own expertise :
maintenance and improvement of forecasting and early warning systems
based upon local users feedback
 Collaboration of African teams and regional centers in the implementation (LOP,
EOP, SOP) and monitoring (EOP & LOP) of the observational networks
Perspectives
1974
GATE
2005
AMMA
- dégradation du climat
- dégradation des réseaux d’observations
- faiblesse de l’organisation
de la recherche
2036 ?
EXP ?
- Réseau AMMANET
- Programme scientifique
validé
- Réseaux d’observations renforcés
- Base de données très importante
AMMA ----> : - Meilleure compréhension des mécanismes de la mousson
- Amélioration des prévisions météorologiques/climatiques
- Meilleure expertise pour traiter la question des Impacts
et pour la prise de décisions
- Meilleure expertise pour soumettre des projets aux bailleurs de fonds
Mais nécessité d’un soutien des états africains pour pérenniser ces efforts !
Téléchargement
Random flashcards
amour

4 Cartes mariam kasouh

Commune de paris

0 Cartes Edune

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

4 Cartes Beniani Ilyes

TEST

2 Cartes Enrico Valle

Créer des cartes mémoire