beysson memoire copie

!
!
!
MÉMOIRE''
"#$%&%!'("&)'*+$!,!+-!$%&%!.!
! !
!!
/0!)&'!/012!
+-'3$4('%$!5&4'(!6!
789:;!<$=((>-!

!
!
/!
789:;!<$=((>-!?!+-'3$4('%$!5&4'(!6!
!
!
!
Table&des&matières&
PREFACE! 4!
INTRODUCTION! 5!
I.!DU!DEMEMBREMENT!DU!MOYEN-ORIENT!A!LA!GUERRE!D’IRAK!;!UN!SIECLE!DE!DIVISIONS!
RELIGIEUSES!ET!ETHNIQUES! 6!
A.!LE!DEMEMBREMENT!DU!MOYEN-ORIENT! 7!
1@!"$!5&4%&A$!B$!1C12! D!
/@!"$!)&-B&%!<4'%&--'*+$! D!
E@!"$!4$F+(!B$!"#&+%>4'%$!<4'%&--'*+$! 6!
B.!LA!GUERRE!D’IRAK! 9!
II.!L’ETAT!ISLAMIQUE!:!UN!ETAT!?! 10!
A.!L’ETAT!ISLAMIQUE!PORTEUR!D’ESPOIR!POUR!LES!SUNNITES!OPPRIMES!10!
B.!LES!CRITERES!DE!RECONNAISSANCE!D’UN!ETAT!11!
1@!"$(!G4'%$4$(!B+!B4>'%!'-%$4-&%'>-&"!1/!
/@!"$!H!)>->5>"$!B$!"&!3'>"$-G$!5I=('*+$!"$A'%')$!J! 1/!
E@!"$!)>->5>"$!F'(G&"!1E!
K@!"$!G4'%$4$!B$(!'-F4&(%4+G%+4$(!-$G$((&'4$!&!"&!3'$!$G>->)'*+$!$%!&!"&!G4>'((&-G$!B$(!-&%'>-(@!L&B&)!
()'%IM! 1K!
C.!UNE!ORGANISATION!NEANMOINS!TRES!PRESENTE!15!
1@!"$(!F"+N!$G>->)'*+$(!'-%$4-&%'>-&+N!1O!
/@!+-$!>4A&-'(&%'>-!->-!4$G>--+$P!)&'(!'-G>-%>+4-&<"$!B&-(!"$(!4$"&%'>-(!'-%$4-&%'>-&"$(!1O!
E@!+-$!'-F"+$-G$!)&Q$+4$!B&-(!"$!)>-B$!)+(+")&-!12!
III.!DES!HYPOTHESES!QUANT!AU!DEVENIR!DE!L’ETAT!ISLAMIQUE!16!
A.!L’AVENIR!DU!«!PROTO-ETAT!»! 16!
B.!LE!DEVENIR!DE!DAECH!17!
CONCLUSION!18!

!
!
E!
789:;!<$=((>-!?!+-'3$4('%$!5&4'(!6!
BIBLIOGRAPHIE!19!
!
! !

!
!
K!
789:;!<$=((>-!?!+-'3$4('%$!5&4'(!6!
!
PREFACE&
!
Q#R:! STUVR:WX! WYR9R:ZZ8Y! SUY! [8! SU\8WP! [RY! :Z! XWR:W! :]^TYWR;W! ^TUY! ]T:! _8! ]T`:Z:S8Y! Z8S!
[T;;R:SSR;[8S! R[aU:S8S! _UYR;W! [8S! WYT:S! _8Y;:bY8S! R;;X8S! SUY! U;! SU\8W! _#R[WURZ:WX@! 'Z!
]#R^^RYR:SSR:W! ;X[8SSR:Y8! _8! [T]^Y8;_Y8! Z#XWRW! R[WU8Z! _8! ZR! ;TU98ZZ8! ]8;R[8! aU8!
Y8^YXS8;W8!BR8[V@!$;c:;P!\8!^8;S8!aU#XWU_:8Y![8!SU\8W!]#R!^8Y]:S!_8!]8WWY8!8;!Y8ZRW:T;!U;!
;T]`Y8!U;!:]^TYWR;W!_8![T;;R:SSR;[8!R[aU:S8S!RU![TUYS!_8!ZR!Z:[8;[8@!
!B#RUWY8!^RYW!ZR![T]^Z8d:WX!_U!SU\8W!]#R^^RYR:SSR:W![T]]8!U;![VRZZ8;e8@!&9R;W!_8![VT:S:Y![8!
SU\8W!\#R9R:S!ZT;eW8]^S![V8Y[VX!U;8!YX^T;S8![ZR:Y8P!f!SR9T:Y!S:!Z#$WRW!'SZR]:aU8!XWR:W!TU!;T;!
U;!$WRW@!-T;!^RS!^RY[8!aU#:Z!;#XWR:W!^RS!Y8[T;;U!^RY!ZR![T]]U;RUWX!:;W8Y;RW:T;RZ8P!]R:S!^RY!
[8!aU#:Z!8;!R9R:W!Z8S![RYR[WXY:SW:aU8S!f!ZR!cT:S!ST[:TZTe:aU8S!8W!ZXeRZ8@!5TUY![8ZR!\#R:!_#R`TY_!_g!
[T]^Y8;_Y8! aU#8SW! [8! aU#XWR:W! U;! $WRWP! aU#R^^8ZR:WhT;! $WRW! 8W! [T]]8;W! Z8! _Xc:;:SSR:WhT;!.!
$;SU:W8!:Z!]#R!cRZZU!_X[Yi^W8Y![8!aU#XWR:W!Z#$WRW!'SZR]:aU8@!*U#XWR:Wh[8!ZR!9TZT;WX!_8![8S!e8;S!.!
BR;S!aU8Z!`UW!.!$W!^RY!aU8ZS!]Ti8;S!.!
!G8S! ]T:S! _8! Y8[V8Y[V8S! T;W! ]RZV8UY8US8]8;W! XWX! `TUZ898YSXS! ^RY! _8S! X9b;8]8;WS!
WYRe:aU8SP! aU:! ;8! [VR;e8;W! Y:8;! RU! WYR9R:Z! _8! Y8[V8Y[V8! ;:! f! Z#R;RZiS8! aU:! R! XWX! cR:W8@!
-XR;]T:;S!Z#R[WURZ:WX!SR;S![8SS8!Y8;TU98ZX!^RY![8S!X9b;8]8;WS!]#R!XWX!_#U;8!eYR;_8!UW:Z:WX@!
5TUY!c:;:Y!\#8S^bY8!aU8![8!]X]T:Y8!8SW!f!ZR!VRUW8UY!_U!WYR9R:Z!cTUY;:!8W!aU#U;!\TUY!:Z!S8YR!UW:Z8!
_R;S!Z#R[[T]^Z:SS8]8;W!_8!]T;!^YT\8W!U;:98YS:WR:Y8@!
! !

!
!
O!
789:;!<$=((>-!?!+-'3$4('%$!5&4'(!6!
Introduction&
!
GYX8!8;!/00K!^RY!&`TU!)TUSSR`!&ZhjRYaRTU:P![8WW8!TYeR;:SRW:T;!8SW!;X8!_8!ZR!cUS:T;!_8!_k&Zh
*Rl_R! 8W! _8! [:;a! RUWY8S! eYTU^8S! _\:VR_:SW8S! RiR;W! XeRZ8]8;W! ^TYWX! RZZXe8R;[8! f! &Zh*Rl_R@!
$ZZ8!^TYWR:W!RZTYS!Z8!;T]!_8!GT;S8:Z![T;SUZWRW:c!_8S!]TU_\RV:_:;8S!8;!'YRm@!&!ZR!]TYW!_8!&Zh
jRYaRTU:!8;!/002P!U;!_X;T]]X!&`TU!<RmY!&Zh<ReV_R_:!Y8^Y8;_!ZR!WnW8!_8!ZkTYeR;:SRW:T;P!aU:!
;k8SW! 8;[TY8! aUkU;8! c:Z:RZ8! _k&Zh*Rl_R! 8;! 'YRm! 8W! Z8! 1E! T[WT`Y8! /002! Z8! GT;S8:Z! [T;SUZWRW:c!
^YT[ZR]8!Z#$WRW!:SZR]:aU8! _#'YRm@! $;! /01/o/01E! Zk$WRW! :SZR]:aU8! 8;! 'YRmP! _X[:_8! _kTU9Y:Y! U;!
cYT;W! 8;! (iY:8! [T;WY8! ZR! 9TZT;WX! _k&Zh*Rl_RP! R98[! &Zh-TSYR! aU:! Y8cUS8! ZkRZZXe8R;[8! f! Zk$WRW!
:SZR]:aU8@!"8!C!R9Y:Z!/01E!Z#TYeR;:SRW:T;P!_XSTY]R:S!SUY!_8Ud!cYT;WSP!_89:8;W!Z#$WRW!:SZR]:aU8!
8;! 'YRm! 8W! RU! "89R;W@! "8! /C! \U:;! /01KP!ST;! [V8cP! &`TU! <RmY! &Zh<ReV_R_:P! R;;T;[8! Z8!
YXWR`Z:SS8]8;W! _U! GRZ:cRW! STUS! Z8! ;T]! _8! Z#$WRW! :SZR]:aU8! 8W! S8! ^YT[ZR]8! [RZ:c8@! H!5TUY! ZR!
^Y8]:bY8! cT:SP! U;! eYTU^8! SRZRc:SW8! Rcc:[VR:W! [ZR:Y8]8;W! ZkT`\8[W:c! _kT[[U^8Y! U;! W8YY:WT:Y8!
eXTeYR^V:aU8!R98[!ZkR]`:W:T;!_8![T;SWYU:Y8!U;!$WRW!J@!G8WW8!^VYRS8!W:YX8!_U!Z:9Y8!_8!5:8YY8h
Q8R;!"U:pRY_P!Le!piège!Daech,!YXSU]8!Z8S!T`\8[W:cS!_8!Z#TYeR;:SRW:T;!,!S8!Y8;_Y8!]RqWY8!_#U;!
W8YY:WT:Y8! 8W! [YX8Y! U;! $WRW! _T;W! Z8S! ^YXYTeRW:98S! ;8! S8! Z:]:W8YT;W! ^RS! ;X[8SSR:Y8]8;W! RUd!
cYT;W:bY8S!_8![8!aU8!Z8S![TZT;:SRW8UYS!`Y:WR;;:aU8S!8W!cYR;rR:S!R9R:8;W!_X;T]]X!Z8!"89R;W@!
"8![VR;e8]8;W!_8!;T]!Z8!]T;WY8!`:8;!8;!8ccRrR;W!ZR!]8;W:T;!_8!Z#'YRm!8W!_U!"89R;W!^TUY!;8!
Y8W8;:Y!aU8!H!$WRW!:SZR]:aU8!J@!)R:S!_R;S!Z8!]n]8!W8]^S!Z#$'!8;WY8!8;![T;cZ:W!R98[!&Z!*Rl_R!
8W! XW8;_! ST;! :;cZU8;[8! _R;S! U;8! eYR;_8! ^RYW:8! _U! ]T;_8! ]USUZ]R;P! 8;Y8e:SWYR;W!
Z#RZZXe8R;[8! _8! ^ZUS:8UYS! eYTU^8S! _\:VR_:SW8SP! ;TWR]]8;W! 8;! ":`i8P! RU! -:eXY:R! TU! RUd!
5V:Z:^^:;8S@!
G8WW8!TYeR;:SRW:T;!W8YYTY:SW8!R!^YTc:WX!_8!ZR!AU8YY8!_k'YRm!_8!/00E!8W!_8!ZR![VUW8!_8!(R__R]!
IUSS8:;!^TUY!sWYR;ScTY]8Y!ZkVTSW:Z:WX!RUd!WYTU^8S!R]XY:[R:;8S!8;!U;8!eU8YY8![T;c8SS:T;;8ZZ8!
8;WY8! [V::W8S! 8W! SU;;:W8Ss1@! B8^U:S! ^ZUS:8UYS! S:b[Z8S! Z8S! _:ccXY8;WS! eYTU^8S! Y8Z:e:8Ud!8W!
8WV;:aU8SP!SU;;:W8SP![V::W8SP!iXp:_:SP!mUY_8SP!9:9R:8;W!8;S8]`Z8!RU!S8:;!_8![8!aU:!_89:8;_YR!
Z#$WRW! 'YRm:8;! 8;! 1CKO@! &! ZR! GVUW8! _8! (R__R]! IUSS8:;P! [V8c! 8W! ]8]`Y8! _U! ^RYW:! <RSSP! Z8S!
R]XY:[R:;S! T;W! 8;WY8^Y:S! U;8! ^TZ:W:aU8! _8! _X`RSS:c:[RW:T;! aU:! R! 8U! ^TUY! `UW! _#XZ:]:;8Y! Z8S!
]8]`Y8S! _U! ^RYW:! _8! (R__R]! IUSS8:;! _8! ZkRY]X8! 8W! _8! ZkR_]:;:SWYRW:T;@! 5TUY! [8! cR:Y8!
Z#R_]:;:SWYRW:T;!<USV!R!STUW8;U!Zk:]^ZR;WRW:T;!_8!ZR!]R\TY:WX![V::W8!_R;S!WTUS!Z8S!YTURe8S!_U!
^TU9T:YP! RUd! _X^8;_S! _8! ZR! ]:;TY:WX! SU;;:W8! aU:! Sk8SW! Y8WYTU9X8! X[RYWX8! _8! WTUW! YtZ8! 8W!
:;cZU8;[8! ^TZ:W:aU8SP! ^U:S! ^8YSX[UWX8! 8W! ]RYe:;RZ:SX8! ^RY! Z8S! ;TU98RUd! eTU98Y;8]8;WS!
[V::W8S!SU[[8SS:cS@!"k$WRW!:SZR]:aU8P!_T;W!Z8S!^Y:;[:^RUd!_:Y:e8R;WS!ST;W!]R\TY:WR:Y8]8;W!:SSUS!
_8S! VRUW8S! cT;[W:T;S! _8! ZkR_]:;:SWYRW:T;! 8W! _8! ZkRY]X8! _8! (R__R]! IUSS8:;P! T;W! ^YTc:WX! _8!
Zk:;SWR`:Z:WX! ^TZ:W:aU8! 8W! _U! STUW:8;! _8S! ^T^UZRW:T;S! ^8YSX[UWX8S! ^RY! Z8S! eTU98Y;8]8;WS!
[V::W8S!^TUY!R[aUXY:Y!U;8!;TWTY:XWX!8W!U;8!cTY[8!^TZ:W:[Th]:Z:WR:Y8!_R;S!ZR!YXe:T;@!FTYW!_8![8S!
STUW:8;SP!Zk$WRW!:SZR]:aU8!R!^U!]8;8Y!_8S!T^XYRW:T;S!X[ZR:YS!8W![T;aUXY:Y!8;!aU8ZaU8S!]T:S!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1!Courrier!international,!Daech!la!menace!planétaire,!^10!L>[WT`Y8P!-T98]`Y8P!BX[8]`Y8!/01OM!W:YX!_8!The!
New!York!Review!of!Books!L1E!&TgW!/01OM!