Vers un service climatique pour les industriels français

Vers des services climatiques
pour les industriels français
Pascale Braconnot and the SECIF
consortium
http://secif.ipsl.fr/
Prior to SECIF
• In 2007
- Climate information: diverse, could be better used
for adaptation strategy and by decision makers
- Lots of industrial activity potentially affected by
climatic factors
- Climate change not taken into account
2007
- Improvement? Dedicated service?
2010
INVULNERABLe-1
Financé par FONDDRI)
2011
2014
INVULNERABLe-2
Financé par GICC)
SECIF
(Financé par ANR)
Project organisation
• Task 1 : identification of the needs and of the structure
– International inventory ; sociological approach ; transverse
analyses of needs
• Case studies
– Sewer system ;
– energy supply (cold waves) ;
– renewable energy
• Climate analyses and documentation
– Data analyses and model evaluation
– Uncertainties and risk
– Downscaling
A complex case: sewer system
?????
Global climate scenarios
Requests
30
25
mm/h
20
 Precip. in mm/day (credibility of
simulated precipitation?)
 resolution of 200km (or ~50 km if
regional downscaling
 time frame (pb signal/noise for
projections < 20-30 years)
15
10
5
0
Rainy event at hourly
timescale
Romanssur-Isère
in 2020
A suite of complementary analyses
• Hydrological model
–
–
–
–
–
Canoe
200 basins for the city
Model calibration with observations
Model validation
Sensitivity studies
• Caracterisation of the modern
setting
– Precipitation from Meteo-France
station
– Radar observations for rainy events
– Analyses of rainy events using 2
methods (duration, volume or
precipitation, maximum precipitation
rate)
– Relationship between overflow and
precipitation
(N. Drut)
Modeling tools
• Regional simulations (ENSEMBLE,
SCRATCH)
Dynamical model ; Statistical downscaling
with bias correction
– Model produce to much background
precipitation
– Underestimation of the rainy event voume
of precipitation and of the peak intensity
• WRF: cascade domain from 29 to 3 km
– Spatio-temporal evolution of rainy events
What did we learn
• The vulnerability of the site was not well known + intuition on
the role of extremes precipitation events was wrong
– Dialog and reformulation of the question before and during the
project is a key for success ; need for tailored climate information
• Results from previous project were not adapted (high
precipitation in south of France, flash floods etc… )
• Two different questions and not only one
– Overflow: possible to study it from the total volume of precipitation)
– Discharge: more difficult question, rainy event analysis, research ok,
but what about the use of the results? Not done
• The development and used of an urban hydrological model was
instrumental to understand the site vulnerability and focus the
efforts
• A typical R&D case :
– need to consider several models, data sets, correction methods, rainy
event generator, downscaling, tests and model evaluation  lots of
technical and non trivial aspects and different specialists.
A typical workflow
Deandreis et al 2014
3 cold wave indicators
% of cold wave days on the historical period from EOBS european
dataset
Projections : incertainty considered in the statistical analysis
Extrenal to climate modeling
- Choice of cold wave indicator
A case where the choice of the
- RCP (socio-economic scenario)
indicator matters and has
Related to climate modeling
implications on both model
- Model quality
evaluation and future
- Model structure (complexity)
projections
Intrinsic to climate behavior
- Internal climate variability
(Synthesis : stage A. Jezequel)
Lessons from the case studies
• Definition of vulnerability / opportunity ; a long and
complex process
– Far from industrial priorities (with exceptions… ex R&D
EDF)
– Knowledge on climate and climate change
– Company specific « operational » knowledge
– Vulnerability is considered as a confidential information….
– Difficulties to reconcile fast time frame of industrial need
and research agenda + case stydies are not generic
– Long process because lots of different aspects to consider
and reconcile (not only climate, but also the ability to
propose a question that make sense and have a global
view of what is expected).
– Most studies require a case by case basis, but also to be
aware or typical examples.
Two important underlaying questions
• Climate services:
– Needs? Role and functions? Relationship between stakeholders?
Economical model ? Concreate implementation?
– Colloquium « service climatique » du 10 janvier 2012
– Actes du colloque "Services Climatiques: vers la fourniture
d'information climatique pour le secteur industriel" (January
2012)
• Uncertainty:
– Colloque (In)certitudes et adaptation au climat futur, 17-18
novembre 2014
– Choix : participants of different origine and different
perspectives d’horizons
– Particularity : a group of “students”  critical analyses of the
discussion, IDDRI publication
Needs
• Several organizations at the international level. All have their +
and • First step in general = assessment of vulnerability
• New jobs = translators (at different levels  near the climate
scientist and also in PMIP, companies etc..)
• And …need for adapted legislation  towards a market
Stage F. Cauvin)
What do sociological inquiries tell us?
Questionnaire
Meeting etc..
• A partir Plans Climat
Energie Territoriaux (PCET )
d’Alsace.
• Identification des
partenaires des 7 PCET
alsaciens et entretiens
auprès des chargés de
mission climat, des
directeurs/directrices de
SCOT, des représentants de
branches, des entreprises
partenaires des PCET et des
cabinets conseil en écologie
et climat.
Thèse Amandine Amat
Subset of results
A few facts
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
7/13 had a climate or sustainable development agenda
Different level and perception of climate vulnerability
Almost no thinking or action for adaptation
No indication for important climate change in Alsace
Lots of sceptics…
Information missing at the regional level
What is said on climate has no resonance on most activity
Impossible to « understand » what scientific means
But it is possible to make people move :
• Discuss typical cases where weather or climate important
• Discuss opportunities
• External or internal constraints (legislation, large groups with different
implementation)
• Networking
Information ! Communication! Ciblée et concrète
Restitution rapide en fin de colloque
(in)certitude
•
Le mot incertitude est beaucoup utilisé chez les climatologues et peu chez les acteurs 
Besoin de revoir la communication entre acteurs-société-scientifiques (se demander ce
qui ne marque pas dans l’organisation actuelle)
•
L’incertitude fait partie normale de la démarche scientifique  certitudes pour passer
aux questions d’adaptation
•
Le monde scientifique communique l’incertitude pour être plus crédible, mais les acteurs
l’utilisent comme alibi, ce qui freine l’évolution des débats
•
L’utilisation d’évènements extrêmes comme exemples pour réfléchir à l’adaptation
semble pertinente, mais risque de cacher le besoin de réfléchir tout autant sur des
modifications graduelles et profondes.
•
Des enjeux cachés (non-dits, éléments confidentiels) bloquent la réflexion collégiale et le
passage à l’action
•
La notion de service climatique est mal comprise et est mal appropriée par les acteurs qui
ont du mal à formaliser la demande.
•
Besoin de passer à l’action = mise en place concrète sur le terrain impliquant les acteurs.
•
Pose plus généralement la question du rôle du scientifique dans la démarche
d’adaptation
Retombées
• bien mis en perspective la technicité et les difficultés de traiter
les questions posées  utilisé pour monter d’autres projets
(copernicus)
• Différenciation des niveaux de réponse (esquisse/quantification
complète)  une fonction à ne pas négliger dans les services
climatiqques.
• Temps de reformulation des questions pour pouvoir les traiter de
façon pertinente.
• Importance des nouveaux métiers (traducteurs) et de la formation
• Rôle des différents partenaires (doit être approfondi ; différence
entre commodités/valeur ajouté).
• Besoin urgent de définir un modèle économique et
l’accompagnement (règles, incitation) pour faire émerger un
« marché »
• Attention à la confusion parfois entretenue entre sciences
multidisciplinaire et « service » climatique.