Contribution-UEL-Semestre_europeen-2016-03-23.pdf

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2.1. Long-term sustainability, in particular pensions
15
Graph 2.1.2: Total age-related expenditure Luxembourg
vs EU, projected change 2013-2060, percent
of GDP, by main components (baseline
scenario)
Source: 2015 Ageing Report
The pressure on public pension expenditure is
driven by a high increase in the number of
pensioners relative to the number of
contributors.(8)(9) Luxembourg is expected to
experience an increase in the old-age dependency
ratio of around 15 pps. (going from 20.3 % in 2013
to 35.6 % in 2060) according to Eurostat
projections.(10) This increase, although substantial,
will be lower than the EU average (+22.3 pps.),
and one of the lowest recorded in the EU.
The relatively greater increase in
Luxembourg’s public pension spending
compared with other Member States is thus
(8) At the same time, Luxembourg would experience a major
increase of its total population (from 0.5 million in 2013 to
1.1 million inhabitants in 2060, the highest relative change
within the EU), largely due to the projected very high net
migration.
(9) According to Luxembourg authorities’ calculations (see
Box 2.1.1).
(10) Population projections used in the Ageing Report are made
by Eurostat (Europop 2013 in the 2015 Ageing Report).
mostly explained by the development of the
benefit ratio. This ratio is projected to increase
slightly in the long run (+2.1 pps.), against a
substantial decrease in the EU (around -9 pps. of
GDP), (see also Box 2.1.1) In 2060, Luxembourg
should exhibit the highest benefit ratio and
replacement rate in the EU (see Table 2.1.1 and
Graphs 2.1.3 and 2.1.4), even if the latest 2012
reform slightly reduced the generosity of the
public pension system (through reduced accrual
rates and a new indexation formula).
Graph 2.1.3: Benefit ratio (public pensions, %) and public
pension expenditures (% of GDP) in 2013
Source: 2015 Ageing Report
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Pensions
Health-care
Long-term care
Education
Unemployment benefits
Total
LU EU
BE
BG
CZ DK
DE
EE
IE
EL
ES
FR
HR
IT
CY
LV
LT
LU
HU
MT
NL
AT
PL
PT
RO
SI
SK
FI
SE
UK
NO EU
EA
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
5 7 9 11 13 15 17
Benefit ratio, public pensions, 2013 (%)
Public pension expenditures, 2013 (% of GDP)
Table 2.1.1: Benefit ratio and replacement rate, 2013 and 2060 (%), Luxembourg versus EU / EA
Note: EU and EA aggregates are calculated as simple averages.
Source: 2015 Ageing Report
2013 2060 % change 2013 2060 % change 2013 2060 % change 2013 2060 % change
LU 57.3 57.8 0.5 51.3 53.4 2.1 77.7 64.6 -13.1 na na na
EU 45.4 36.5 -8.9 44.0 34.9 -9.1 45.7 38.9 -6.8 41.6 32.6 -9.0
EA 47.5 37.7 -9.9 46.1 37.5 -8.7 47.6 39.1 -8.4 45.2 35.1 -10.2
Benefit Ratio (%) Gross Average Replacement Rate (%)
Public pensions - earnings related Public pensions Public pensions - earnings related Public pensions