Présentation PowerPoint - Paris School of Economics

De la crise financière à la crise
économique.
Roger Guesnerie
Collège de France, EEP/PSE

Introduction.
…Crisis : un « fait économique total ».
- History.
- The present events.
- Mechanisms.
- Institutions and organizations.
Survey : subjective choice.
- Crises in history.
- The illness and its therapies.
- Back on the diagnosis.
- Conclusion.

De la crise financière à la crise
économique.
Les crises dans l’histoire.

The history of crises: famous
« Bubbles ».
17th century : the « tulip mania ».
–The dutch society fascinated by tulips, (Bruegel).
–Futures for tulips.
–From 1634 to 1637,
–A speculative increase of prices.
–1637, example of a bulb price.
–The price of 2 houses, 5 to 15 years of income of a craftsman.
–February 1637 : the market collapses.
–The end of « the trade of wind » « le commerce du vent ».
–A speculative bubble.
–Financial Crisis.
18th century: « The South Sea Bubble »
–1711, the « South Sea Company » gets the management of the Britain
debt,
–6/°interest + exclusivity of trade with latin America.
–stratospheric price level 1720-21, collapse in 1721.
–Newton :
« I can forecast the movement of planets, but I could not compute the madness
of men. »

Les grandes crises : 1929, 2008.
1929. “The mother of all crises”. From the krach to the world crisis.
–A spectacular rise of the Dow Jones index.
–From 1921 to 1929, increase of industrial production 50/°, of the Stock Exchange, >300/°
–New system of credit for purchasing shares ?
–The krach
–Contained on black Thursday, but
–October 28, Black Monday : -13/°, then Black Tuesday, -12/°.
–An ongoing fall from 1930 to 1932.
–Considerable losses.
–Trigerring a world crisis.
2008. The present crisis : « From sub-primes to depression »
–A « local » crisis. The burst of the housing bubble in the States.
–Connected with sub-primes loans.
–Propagated to the world financial system.
–Rescue of Northern Rock, then
–Fall of Lehman Brothers, Sep. 2008, fall of Stock exchanges in the world.
–A quick and synchronised transmission to the world economy.
–2008, 2009
–What next ?
–V, U, V, W, L