Dependent Variable: DGROWTH
Method: ARDL
Date: 04/27/25 Time: 13:18
Sample (adjusted): 2006 2023
Included observations: 18 after adjustments
Maximum dependent lags: 4 (Automatic selection)
Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)
Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): CONS MENAG
Fixed regressors: C
Number of models evaluated: 100
Selected Model: ARDL(4, 4, 4)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*
DGROWTH(-1) -2.019720 0.499529 -4.043247 0.0272
DGROWTH(-2) -2.039993 0.855655 -2.384132 0.0973
DGROWTH(-3) -1.562600 0.720635 -2.168367 0.1186
DGROWTH(-4) -0.439887 0.323421 -1.360105 0.2670
CONS 0.634555 0.368011 1.724282 0.1831
CONS(-1) 0.854556 0.446132 1.915478 0.1513
CONS(-2) -0.288587 0.274677 -1.050643 0.3706
CONS(-3) 0.023409 0.426106 0.054937 0.9596
CONS(-4) -0.325957 0.385440 -0.845676 0.4598
MENAG 0.038358 0.175945 0.218012 0.8414
MENAG(-1) -0.481069 0.374673 -1.283968 0.2893
MENAG(-2) -0.206521 0.463563 -0.445508 0.6861
MENAG(-3) -0.250423 0.447236 -0.559935 0.6146
MENAG(-4) 0.948720 0.367449 2.581913 0.0816
C -2.915190 4.673754 -0.623736 0.5770
R-squared 0.995664 Mean dependent var -0.000795
Adjusted R-squared 0.975431 S.D. dependent var 5.345891
S.E. of regression 0.837935 Akaike info criterion 2.359155
Sum squared resid 2.106406 Schwarz criterion 3.101132
Log likelihood -6.232397 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.461464
F-statistic 49.20998 Durbin-Watson stat 1.684613
Prob(F-statistic) 0.004121
*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model
selection.
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