Technology trajectory (cycle or wave) :path/
direction of advancement a technology
follows over time. This path may refer to:
(a) its rate of performance improvements,
(b) its rate of diffusion,
And (c) other change aspects.
(a)& (b) adopted follow a s-shape curve. The
technology performance improvement–
SUPPLY SIDE (Firms) the rate of technology
adoption – DEMAND SIDE (Customers)
S-shape technology improvements :
Phase 1 - Basic research; Few companies & researchers; Technology improves slowly at first because
it is poorly understood; Exploration phase.
Phase 2 – Applied research; More companies and researchers involved; Technology accelerates as
understanding of the technology increases; Exploitation phase.
Phase 3 - Technology then tapers off as it approaches limits or gets substituted by another technology.
S-shape technology diffusion:
Adoption: initially slow bc the tech. is complex, unfamiliar &
expensive. It accelerates as it becomes better understood.
Eventually, market is saturated, rate of new adoptions declines.
• Innovators:2.5% to adopt an inn. They are opinion leaders.
• Early Adopters :13.5% .They are followers.
• The Early Majority is the next 34%—mass market.
• The Late Majority are the next 34%. They are sceptical.
• Laggards:16%. They must feel certain that an innovation
will not fail before adopting it.
S-shape technology diffusion (SCD):
• In part, a function of the s-curve in technology improvements . As tech. becomes better, it becomes
more certain and useful to users, facilitating the adoption. Tech.diffusion tends to take far longer than
information diffusion because it might require time, specific knowledge or expertise.
Technology Cycles: metaphors for Schumpeter’s view of innovation as a creative destruction
phenomenon: interplay between ruptures (discontinuity) in the knowledge process about a specific
technology or application of technology, followed by the incorporation of knowledge into a new
product or process (continuity) up to the acceptance of a dominant design.
• A dominant design is a configuration or set of features that becomes the accepted market standard
Discussion questions
1. What are some reasons that established firms might resist adopting a new technology?= Inertia and
Resistance to change ; Investments in current systems; Risk aversion and organizational culture
2. Are well-established firms or new entrants more likely to (a) develop and/or (b) adopt new
technologies? Why? : (a) => New entrants may be more likely to develop new technologies as they
are often driven by a need to differentiate themselves and disrupt existing markets.Well-established
firms may also engage in research and development, but their focus might be on incremental
innovations or improvements to existing technologies