REVIEW PAPER Tourism and climate change

REVIEW PAPER
Tourism and climate change: a review of threats and adaptation strategies for Africa
Gijsbert Hoogendoorna* and Jennifer M. Fitchettb
a
Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy Studies, University of
Johannesburg, P.O. Box, 524, Auckland Park, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2006; email:
[email protected] b Evolutionary Studies Institute, University of the Witwatersrand,
Private Bag x3, Wits, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2050; email:
[email protected]
Funding
This work was conducted while JF was employed as a postdoctoral fellow funded by the
DST/NRF Centre of Excellence for Palaeosciences.
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REVIEW PAPER
Tourism and climate change: a review of threats and adaptation strategies for Africa
Abstract
The intersection of tourism and climate change has seen significant research over the past
two decades, focusing particularly on issues of mitigation and adaptation in the global
North. Research output has predominantly been centred on the Mediterranean and Nordic
countries and number of localities in North-America. The global South has seen
significantly less investigation, despite having significantly lower adaptive capacity to the
impacts of climate change, and numerous countries with rapidly growing tourism sectors.
The African continent specifically has seen appreciably less research than other countries
in the global South, despite arguably having the lowest adaptive capacity and projections of
severe impacts of climate change to the tourism sector from temperature increases, changes
in precipitation volume and sea level rise. This paper therefore presents a review of the
existing literature on adaptation strategies of tourism sectors and participants in African
countries. The crucial argument of this paper is in highlighting the need for an increase in
research into the threats of climate change to tourism in African countries, identifying
future research trajectories. The development of such knowledge would assist in the
development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for these most vulnerable tourism
economies.
Keywords: tourism; climate change; Africa; adaptation; future research.
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1. Introduction
Climate affects the seasonality of tourism, tourists’ selection of destinations, available tourist
activities and attractions, and the overall satisfaction of a vacation (Becken, 2005; Gössling,
Scott, Hall, Ceron & Dubois, 2012; Kyriakidis & Felton, 2008; Morabito, Crisci, Barcaioli &
Maracchi, 2004; Richins & Scarinci, 2009). Climate change, therefore, has the potential to
reduce the sustainability and long-tern viability of global tourism. As climate plays a
significant role in the comparative selection of a tourist destination, climate change has the
potential to alter the popularity of tourism localities and regions (Rosselló & Waqas, 2015).
Furthermore, progressive changes in the climate of a location and increasing threats of
associated natural hazards including storms, flooding and sea-level rise, can result in
destinations becoming progressively unsuitable for tourism (C. Rogerson, 2016). The ability
of tourism destinations to mitigate and adapt to climate change is hampered by the competing
requirements of the more immediate development of a destination’s tourism sector and
infrastructure (Mohan & Morton, 2009). Long-term planning for the consequences of climate
change is often believed to be unnecessary due to the delay until such affects are experienced,
and the probability of them occurring (Hoogendoorn, Grant & Fitchett, 2016). While for
developed countries it could be argued that the threats and opportunities to tourism of climate
change may be relatively well balanced (Perch-Nielsen, Amelung & Knutti, 2010), the
competing challenges of economic development and social uplift in the developing countries
of the African continent result in a lowered adaptive capacity such that threats to the tourism
sector are the most likely, and a highly critical, outcome of climate change (C. Rogerson,
2016).
Kaján and Saarinen’s (2013) review in Current Issues in Tourism explores major global
issues around tourism, climate change and adaptation which emphasises the need for
community specific studies. However, we would argue that despite the significant
contribution by Kaján and Saarinen (2013), the relationships between climate change and
tourism are complex, inter-related and often location specific. The threats of climate change
to tourism, are heightened in developing countries (C. Rogerson, 2016). Therefore, this
review paper critically explores the scant existing literature on tourism and climate change
for the African continent, and argues for a greater research focus on the continent to improve
the understanding of these relationships and to facilitate improved adaptation strategies. This
is particularly true for countries, which have additional immediate policy and developmental
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concerns. The lack of available capital, proactive policies, and expert knowledge on climate
change reduces the adaptive capacity of developing countries, and in turn their tourism
sectors. Moreover, this paper highlights the shortage of academic research on climate change
and tourism in Africa (Njoroge, 2015), and points towards future research trajectories. The
themes discussed in this paper are the climate change threats to tourism relating to increasing
temperatures, precipitation changes, sea level rise, increased concentration of pollution,
followed by a discussion of the findings of location-, attraction-, and severity-dependant
adaptation requirements. These themes were identified by the authors during the analysis of
existing literature as those which pose the most critical threats to tourism, and which have
seen preliminary investigation but requires deeper research focus due to the severity of
projected future impacts. In terms of literature consulted, the authors conducted a wideranging search, cross checked through Google Scholar, Science Direct, Ebscohost, Springer
and Web of Knowledge, across any disciplines that specifically made reference to climate
change and tourism in Africa. No time period was specified during searches given the paucity
of research. A number of key words and phrases were used in this study, too numerous to
mention here, but some of the key ones were ‘climate change + tourism + Africa’, ‘climate
threats to tourism in Africa’, ‘global environmental change + tourism + Africa’. As well as
the key words ‘climate change + tourism’ with each of the 54 African countries entered
separately.
2. The relationship between global climate change and tourism
Globally, tourism is one of the fastest growing global economic sectors, contributing
considerably to the national and local economies of countries around the world (Scott &
Lemieux, 2010). Weather and climate are important determinants of the success of tourism in
a given location, and arguably the predominant factor controlling tourist flows on a global
scale (Moreno, 2010; Scott and Lemieux, 2010). Despite the important role of climate on
tourism activities, research into the relationship between climate and tourism has evolved
relatively recently, emerging only in recent decades (March, Sauri & Llurdes, 2014; Scott,
McBoyle & Schwartzentruber, 2004). This research highlights recognition by state
governments and tourism stakeholders that climate change threatens to significantly
detriment tourism (Hamilton, Maddison & Tol, 2005; Moreno, 2010).
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Climate change impacts on tourism are already being observed, and are gradually influencing
decision-making within the tourism sector (Simpson, Gössling, Scott, Hall & Gladin, 2008).
The United World Tourism Organisation (UNTWO) has identified climate change impacts on
tourist destinations, their competitiveness and sustainability (UNWTO, UNEP & WTO,
2008). The redistribution of climatic resources between different tourism destinations is of
particular concern (Ehmer and Heymann, 2008; N. Marshall, P. Marshall, Abdulla, Rouphael
& Ali, 2011). Due to the changes in the length and quality of climate-dependent tourism
seasons, the competitive advantage of certain destinations will be altered, ultimately affecting
the viability of tourism businesses globally (UNWTO, 2009). The indirect impacts of climate
change include changes to a destination’s environment in response to the altered climate
(Agnew and Viner, 2001). These environmental changes can include changes in the local
biodiversity, landscape aesthetics, a decrease in wildlife, increased coastal erosion, and
damage to tourism infrastructure (Agnew & Viner, 2001; Reddy, 2012).
The combined direct and indirect impacts of climate change will have significant
ramifications on tourism destinations, businesses and infrastructure (March et al., 2014;
Simpson et al., 2008). The effects of climate change on the tourism sector will vary
significantly based on the type of tourism market and the geographic region of a tourist
destination (Simpson et al., 2008). The threats of climate change on winter tourism,
specifically on skiing destinations, includes reductions in the depth of snow and in the
duration of the winter season (c.f. Harrison, Winterbottom & Johnson, 2001; Scott, McBoyle
& Mills, 2003; Whetton, Haylock & Galloway, 1996). Beach tourism faces threats of
intolerably high temperatures, more frequent precipitation, changes in wave dynamics and sea
level rise (Ehmer and Heymann, 2008; Fitchett, Grant & Hoogendoorn, 2016; Moreno and
Amelung, 2009; Sagoe-Addy & Addo, 2013). Mediterranean regions, in particular, are
projected to experience hotter climatic conditions which may result in significant discomfort
for tourists during peak summer tourist period (Amelung et al., 2007). By contrast, the
warming trend projected for countries in northern Europe is likely to be beneficial to tourism,
as it will result in a more ameliorable climate better suited to outdoor activities (Amelung et
al., 2007). The geography of a particular location, the nature of the tourist attractions, and the
regionally-specific climate change projections for different temporal periods are thus of vital
importance.
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3. Global south climate change threats to tourism
Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a country’s sensitivity, its exposure, its
physical setting and by its capacity to adapt (Adger, Huq, Brown, Conway & Hulme, 2003).
Relative to developed countries, the global South are considered particularly vulnerable to
climate change, with their comparatively lower adaptive capacity placing them at greater risk
to the impacts of climate change (Adger et al., 2003; Spence, Poortinga, Butler & Pidgeon,
2011; Spence, Poortinga & Pidgeon, 2012). In the context of climate changed, the IPCC
defines adaptive capacity as
“the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and
extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to
cope with the consequences”.
(Gallopin, 2006: 300)
Due to the lack of capital intensity and technological flexibility, developing countries, cannot
adapt as effectively and are left more vulnerable than developed countries (Bryan Deressa,
Gbetibouo, & Ringler, 2009; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006). In addition to the insufficient
capacity to adapt to the direct threats of climate change, developing countries are at further
risk due to their heavy reliance on both economic sectors and resources that are sensitive to
climate change, including agriculture and tourism (Adger et al., 2003; Mertz, Halsnæs,
Oleson & Rasmussen, 2009). This vulnerability to climate change, particularly within the
economic sector, can further aggravate the social and economic challenges that are currently
being experienced in developing countries (Adger et al., 2003).
Due to the heightened vulnerability and lowered adaptive capacity, developing countries have
adaptation requirements which differ from those of the global North, requiring an approach
relatively low in cost, and which addresses the stressors within the lower income populations
(Adger et al., 2003; Buob and Stephan, 2013; Mertz et al., 2009). However, despite the
severity of the projected impacts of climate change and the need for adaption, many
developing countries do not perceive climate change to be their most significant challenge
nor prioritise it financially (Mertz et al., 2009). Poverty reduction, economic growth, housing
and service provision are typically considered more important than sustainable adaptation to
climate change, particularly in the short-term (Grant, 2015; Reddy, 2012). It is thus argued
that developing countries consequently require assistance from developed countries in order
to build their human and technical capacities improve adaptability, while meeting the more
severe short term requirements of the population (Smit & Wandel, 2006). A domain where
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this type of assistance would be valuable is the coastal regions of developing countries, which
in many cases hosts considerable parts of tourism localities and regions in the global South
(Agrawala et al., 2007). These capacity shortfalls include the human, financial and technical
capital needed to effectively deal with climate change impacts, which is lessened in countries
with a variety of socio-economic and environmental conditions and issues (Amelung et al.,
2007). Consequently, various national and international stakeholders are reviewing their
respective roles and responsibilities and are offering governmental support to countries facing
the worst effects of climate change (Beck, 2010).
4. Climate change threats to African tourism
The threats that climate change poses to African tourism can be classified according to the
climate change impacts projected globally which have the potential to threaten tourism
viability (Table 1). Due to the nature of the tourist attractions in a particular region, and the
climatic characteristics of a particular location, certain impacts will be more severe than
others. However, an understanding of the potential impacts associated with climate change is
an essential initial step in assessing the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of a region to
tourism, and in the long-term to inform such adaptation. These themes will be discussed
based on current literature focussing on tourism and climate change in Africa.
4.1. Increasing temperatures
The greatest focus in climate change science, and the key point of many projections, is in the
temperature rises associated with an increase in greenhouse gases. Such temperature
increases have the potential to affect tourism negatively both directly and indirectly. Direct
impacts include the thermal discomfort to tourists when temperatures exceed the human
comfort levels (Gössling & Schumacher, 2010; Hunt & Watkiss, 2011). Indirect impacts,
with varying levels of severity and impact, include the effects of temperature changes on the
components of the natural environment which comprise the tourist attraction (Hambira,
Saarinen, Manwa & Atlhopheng, 2013). Due to the increased severity of temperature
increases with latitude, the distribution of temperature-dependent features, and the varying
reliance of tourism on the natural environment, there are necessarily spatial variations in the
severity of the threat of temperature increases to tourism (J. Rogerson & Sims, 2012).
The influence of high temperatures on tourists’ discomfort is often relative, both to the
perceived temperatures of a destination, and to other climate threats (Gössling, Bredberg,
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Randow, Sandström & Svensson, 2006; Gössling & Schumacher, 2010). For Zanzibar in
Tanzania, despite mean maximum temperatures of 32°C, warm temperatures are not
considered problematic for tourists (Gössling et al., 2006). Rather, storms and humidity are
cited as climatic variables of concern (Gössling et al., 2006). Humidity is intrinsically related
to temperature, and thus may reflect a manifestation of the influence of high temperatures on
tourist discomfort (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010), but it is notable that despite being at the upper
limit of thermal limits for tourism, temperature is not of direct concern (Gössling et al.,
2006). By contrast, at the Okavango Delta in Botswana, excessively warm temperatures were
found to have negatively affected tourist operators as outdoor activities which could not be
climate controlled, such as boat and canoe rides, were often cancelled (Hambira et al., 2013).
There is an inherent seasonality to the influence of increasing temperatures on tourism. For
northern Tunisia, warming temperatures improve conditions for tourists in winter, but for
summer and autumn the climate is increasingly becoming too hot for sightseeing activities
(Köberl, Prettenthaler & Bird, 2016). Where tourism relies predominantly on the summer
months, such temperature increases are proportionately more damaging. The Moroccan High
Atlas Mountains have attracted visitors during the summer months who enjoy the cooler
temperatures relative to lower altitude adjacent locations (Parish & Funnell, 1999). As these
lower altitude valleys become warmer, permanent residents have moved upslope, contesting
space previously dominated by second homes (Parish & Funnel, 1999).
The response of the natural environment to increasing temperatures can be classified into
range shifts and migration, phenological shifts in the timing of annual events and resultant
reductions in yields, and extirpation (Fitchett, Grab & Thompson, 2015; Root, Price, Hall,
Schneider, Rosenzweig & Pounds, 2003). In regions where range shifts are largely
unconstrained, as is the case in the Okavango Delta, Kenya and Tanzania, temperatures
increases threaten to induce wildlife migration, potentially detracting from and ultimately
eliminating the key tourist attraction (Agnew & Viner, 2003; Hambira et al., 2013). Where
migration is not feasible, there are concerns that increasing temperatures in the Western Cape
Province of South Africa will negatively affect wine farming, which in turn will compromise
tourism associated with the wine route a key tourism product of South Africa (Steyn, 2012).
By contrast, warming promotes the growth of opportunistic species, such as algae, a concern
for bird watching at the many dams in the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007).
In the case of extirpation, considerable concern surrounds coral bleaching occurring due to
rising ocean temperatures (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007; Marshall et al., 2011). Coral bleaching is
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argued to be a significant threat for tourism associated with scuba diving and snorkelling at
the Sinai Peninsula (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007) and the Seychelles (Marshall et al., 2011).
4.2. Precipitation changes
Projections for precipitation under climate change are less consistent than for temperature,
with increases projected for certain regions and reductions for others. Both situations have the
potential to negatively affect tourism, either through reducing the probability of outdoor
activities, or through preventing water-based tourist activities (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009;
Preston Whyte & Watson, 2005). Of arguably greater concern, particularly in the short-term,
are the occurrence of precipitation-related extreme events, including storms, floods and
droughts (Gössling et al., 2006; Reid, Sahlén, MacGregor & Stage, 2007). Such events have
the capacity to close down a tourist destination for the duration, if not additionally resulting
in long-term costly damage (Darkoh, Khayesi & Mbaiwa, 2014). Due to the spatial variation
and unpredictable nature of these precipitation related changes, the potential adaptive
capacity is lowered. As with temperature increases there are additional secondary impacts to
the natural environment which pose further threats to tourism in a given region.
Many tourists mentioned projections for increased precipitation in Zanzibar, yet far greater
concern was of the impacts of a heightened number of severe tropical cyclones (Gössling et
al., 2006). Storm surges are becoming increasingly damaging to the tourism sector in South
Africa, due to the predominance of nature and beach related tourism accommodation
establishments and tourist attraction situated in the eastern half of the country, exposed to
tropical cyclones (Fitchett, Hoogendoorn & Swemmer, in press; Steyn & Spencer, 2012).
Storm surges also pose threats to the southern coast of South Africa due to the low elevation
of many coastal towns, and the effects of coastal lows (Fitchett, Grant & Hoogendoorn, 2016;
Steyn, 2012). One of the most severe direct effects of storms is in the destruction of
infrastructure such as roads and bridges which are necessary in providing access to tourist
destinations (Agnew & Viner, 2003; Dilimondo & Dickinson, 2015; Fitchett et al., 2016;
Hoogendoorn et al., 2016). Recent flooding has prevented access to tourist destinations, and
in turn hindered tourism in Nigeria (Dilimondo & Dickinson, 2015), the Okavango delta in
Botswana (Darkoh et al., 2014), and the Limpopo Province (Fitchett et al., in press) and
South Coast (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016) of South Africa. The floods in the Moremi Game
Reserve in the Okavango Delta in 2000 resulted in their complete isolation, with financial
losses which necessitated the retrenchment of many tourism workers in the Okavango Delta
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(Darkoh et al., 2014). The secondary effects of increased precipitation and storm surges on
tourism include decreased visibility for scuba in Zanzibar (Gössling et al., 2006). Increased
precipitation and flooding in the Okavango Delta could result in crocodiles and hippopotamus
moving into tourist populated areas (Hambira and Saarinen, 2015). Increased precipitation
could also increase the malaria and cholera prevalence in many regions (Darkoh et al., 2014;
Kgathi et al., 2006).
Progressive regional drying is of particular concern for tourism sectors which rely on water as
a key attraction (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009). There are concerns that under prolonged
drying, the Okavango Delta will no longer provide a tourist attraction, resulting in a
decimation of the tourism sector in the region (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009). It is likely that
seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, and the resultant water levels in the Okavango Delta,
would be sufficient to alter travel decisions, particularly as activities such as boat rides will
increasingly be unavailable (Hambira & Saarinen, 2015). Nevertheless, for southern Africa,
projected rainfall decreases are argued to be able to facilitate an increase in desert tourism
destinations (Saarinen, Hambira, Atlhopheng & Manwa, 2012). This however would come at
the expense of communities that rely on rainfall for their livelihood, and would result in
pressure for resources between the tourism and other local livelihoods that will become
increasingly vulnerable (Dillimono & Dickinson, 2015; Kaján and Saarinen., 2013).
Aridification and drought conditions have the potential to dramatically alter the faunal
diversity and spatial distribution in game reserves and national parks. Changes in major
migratory patterns of game in the Kgalagai Transfrontier Park in Southern Africa and the
Etosha National Park in Namibia are due to continue as animals have to travel considerably
further between wetland and dryland grazing areas (Reid et al., 2007). As 75% of Namibia’s
tourism sector relies on game viewing and trophy hunting, such migratory behaviour has
economic impacts (Reid et al., 2007). For aquatic species, a greater reliance on moist
conditions exists: drought in the St Lucia region of South Africa has prevented the Umfolozi
Estuary from remaining open, severely affecting fish migration and breeding opportunities,
which in turn removes the angling tourism attractions of the region (Hoogendoorn, 2014;
Steyn & Spencer, 2012). Desertification, erosion and desert encroachment associated with
prolonged dry climatic conditions are of concern, particularly for the aesthetic component of
tourist attractions, and have been noted for the Kgalagai Transfrontier Park and a number of
localities in Nigeria (Dillimono & Dickinson, 2015; Reid et al., 2007).
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Secondary effects of drought and aridification to tourism include the effects on the fauna and
flora, and on the affordable and easy access to resources. Biodiversity is threatened both
directly due to prolonged droughts, as for Nigeria and the subtropics (Dillimono &
Dickinson, 2015), and indirectly through increased prevalence of animal diseases, such as
canine distemper virus decimating lion populations in East Africa (Reid et al., 2007).
Animals, and their role as tourist attractions, can also be affected by the reduction of
vegetation which provides both habitat and food, as is arguably the case for the Kruger
National Park in South Africa (Steyn & Spencer, 2012). In addition, a reduction in
precipitation threatens to reduce bird-watching opportunities in Botswana (Hambira &
Saarinen, 2015). Under particularly severe droughts, the food security of a region can be
threatened, providing moral issues regarding the distribution of such resources to tourists in
favour of the local community which threatens the potential of equitable and sustainable
tourism development (Dillimono & Dickinson, 2015).
4.3. Sea level rise
For low lying coastal regions, sea level rise poses a considerable threat to tourism, reducing
the quality of coastal destinations in the short term and ultimately obliterating them in the
long-term (Awuor, Orindi & Adwera, 2008; Hoogendoorn et al., 2016; Nicholls et al., 2007).
The lowered adaptive capacity of developing countries on the African continent, heightens
the risk of sea level rise, particularly to tourism which is by necessity not of adaptive priority
(Awuor et al., 2008; Snoussi, Ouchani & Niazi, 2008). Research to date has highlighted
concerns regarding the impacts of sea level rise to tourism in Kenya (Awuor et al., 2008),
Morocco (Snoussi et al., 2008), South Africa (Fitchett et al., 2016; Hoogendoorn et al., 2016;
Steyn & Spencer, 2012) and Egypt (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007). There exists some debate
regarding the preparedness of tourism locations on the Egyptian coastline to the threats of sea
level rise: the location of many accommodation establishments in the particularly low-lying
regions of the Nile Delta are argued to be of concern particularly due to the close proximity
of historical sites (Ahmed & Hefny, 2007), yet Egypt is reported as one of the few locations
with a strong adaptive capacity due to their thorough vulnerability and impact assessments
(Agrawala et al., 2004). For South Africa a disjunction between science and perceptions
(Fitchett et al., 2016) and between the perceptions of tourists and accommodation
establishments (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016) is found regarding sea level rise threats to tourism:
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tourists are more concerned by sea level rise than the management of accommodation
establishments, while digital elevation models confirm the fears of the tourists.
4.4. Increased concentration of pollution
Climate change and pollution are intricately linked: pollution, particularly in the form of the
emission of carbon dioxide and monoxide, is a key contributor to global warming, while the
climate changes associated often serve to concentrate and migrate pollution sinks (Tesfaye,
Mengitsu Tsidu, Botai, Sivakumar, & Rautenbach, 2015; Sajjad, Noreen & Zaman, 2014).
For African cities with particularly severe air pollution, a result of poor legislation on
emissions and insufficient implementation of migratory measures such as filters, the
decreased air quality is a considerable deterrent to tourism (Sajjad et al., 2014). Air pollution
additionally contributes to coral bleaching, reducing the attractiveness of a location for scuba
diving and snorkelling (Marshall et al., 2011). However, Dillimono and Dickinson (2015)
report that interviewees in the case of Nigeria misunderstand the central issues surrounding
the various forms of pollution, suggesting that this may not be a significant deterrent to
tourism in Africa as yet. There is a notable lack of knowledge surrounding the impacts of
severe pollution on tourism, compounded by the sparse literature surrounding African air
pollution in general. This lack of business, consumer and academic knowledge further
hampers the adaptive capacity.
5. Avenues for adaptation
The potential for successful, sustainable adaptation to climate change threats to tourism is
determined by the nature and severity of the threat, the financial strength of the tourism sector
(and/or the component establishments), and the competing social and economic needs of the
African country in question. One of the greatest difficulties in the adaptation to climate
change threats is that they seldom occur in isolation, for example a location under threat of
sea level rise may also face challenges relating to changes in precipitation and increased
temperatures (Fitchett et al., 2016).
5.1. Efforts towards adapting
As mentioned earlier tourism operators in Botswana are reported to already be experiencing
difficulties relating to increased temperatures (Hambira et al., 2013). In response, they have
adjusted the timing of organized activities to cooler times of the day to ensure that human
comfort levels are not exceeded, and have provided a greater number of swimming pools,
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shaded areas and air conditioner to mitigate the heat during the middle of the day (Hambira et
al., 2013). Respondents in the Kgalagadi district are not yet experiencing detrimentally high
temperatures, but similarly intend to build more swimming pools and shaded areas, and to
plant more trees should guests require cooler temperatures (Saarinen, Hambira, Atlhopheng
& Manwa, 2012). However, this is in itself problematic given that the usage of resource
intensive mechanisms such as air conditioners and swimming pools may not be viable
adaptive mechanisms as this will put stress on already limited water supplies especially
during drought periods.
In response to the threat of increased drought occurrences, respondents from accommodation
establishments in the Okavango Delta intend to make a shift from water- to land-based
activities, to drill for water to ensure waterholes for animals, and to maintain large water
containers to ensure water can be provided to tourists (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009; Saarinen
et al., 2012). The importance of educating the local communities on the importance of water
conservation, and of working with businesses from other economic sectors to develop
mitigation plans, was also raised by respondents from the Okavango Delta (Saarinen et al.,
2012). Flooding is argued to be a greater threat to small and micro tourism enterprises such as
accommodation establishments with less than 20 beds (Darkoh et al., 2014); larger
accommodation establishments can adapt during flooding events by moving guests to
alternate rooms on the property or alternate locations (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa, 2009).
The diversity of tourist offerings is argued to be a critical component of any adaptation
strategy to mitigate the effects of climate change to tourism (Hambira & Saarinen, 2015).
This is occurring at a large scale at the Egyptian Red Sea, where dive operators are
diversifying their offerings to additionally include bird watching, and lessons on astronomy
and indigenous foods, culture and music (Marshall et al., 2011). At a smaller scale,
accommodation establishments on the South Coast of South Africa are diversifying their
primarily beach offering, by providing board games and satellite television for rainy days
(Hoogendoorn et al., 2016). Tourists often seek alternative activities on days with poor
climate without any involvement of tourist operators, finding nearby museums and game
farms to visit (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016). However, prolonged periods of poor climatic
conditions would most likely reduce tourist numbers.
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5.2. Quantifying adaptive capacity
In addition to the direct threats of climate change to tourism, global responses to climate
change may also threaten tourism where mitigation requires reducing emissions generated
through travel. African tourism is particularly vulnerable to changes in the aviation industry
relating to reductions in long haul flights, as the region attracts a large number of visitors
from overseas especially for long haul destinations from main tourist generating countries
such as the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, India and China to receiving regions
such as Southern Africa, Seychelles and Mauritius (Gössling, Peeters & Scott, 2008; C.
Rogerson, 2012). As Hambira and Saarinen (2015) rightly note, both adaptation and
mitigation policies are equally important. The greening of accommodation establishments
(Hoogendoorn, Grant & Fitchett, 2015) and attempts towards carbon neutral tourist
destinations (Gössling & Schumacher, 2010) could potentially be viable elsewhere across the
African continent and address both climate change adaptation and mitigation.
A challenge for successful adaptation of the tourism sector to climate change lies in the
apportionment of responsibility. In both Botswana (Saarinen et al., 2012) and South Africa
(Fitchett et al., 2016; Hoogendoorn et al., 2015), the government were perceived to be
responsible for ensuring sufficient adaptation to the threats of climate change. Moreover,
tourist accommodation establishment managers rely on government to alert them of any
threats; with insufficient education from government and a lack of government action
towards adaptation, climate change is not perceived to be a problem (Hoogendoorn et al.,
2016). The issue is heightened by the lack of uncontentious information provided to the
tourism sector regarding climate change threats. Tourism climate indices (TCIs) provide a
tool to assess the climate suitability of a region to tourism, and with a sufficiently long timeseries, the impact of climate change on climate suitability to tourism (Amelung & Viner,
2006; Fitchett et al., 2016; Köberl et al., 2016). Combined with climate forecasts and
economic modelling, predictions can be made regarding the future viability of a tourism
destination on the basis of climate change (Köberl et al., 2016). Indices more specific to
particular tourist attractions, such as the Beach Comfort Index, have been developed and
applied to South Africa (Becker, 1998). However, the level of scientific confidence regarding
the TCI outputs, and the capacity to translate these quantitative outputs to stakeholders in the
tourism sector remains uncertain (Hoogendoorn et al., 2016). Consequently, the capacity of
the tourism sectors across the African continent to adapt to climate change remains largely
unknown (Kaján & Saarinen, 2013).
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Of concern to the sustainability of the tourism sectors of the African continent is the
disjuncture in perceptions of tourists and tourism operators regarding climate change.
Marshall et al. (2011) exposed the disjuncture between dive tourists and diving operators in
terms of their understanding of each other, while dive tourists are increasingly aware of
climate change and their impact, it seems that diving operators do not think that tourists have
this consideration and therefore some operators may risk losing customers to more aware
operators that do consider their ecological footprint.
6. Future research trajectories
The intricate relationship between tourism and climate change ensures that tourism sectors
across the African continent will be affected to some degree by continued changes in
precipitation, temperature, humidity, air pollution and sea level rise. The nature and extent of
such impacts is a factor of the geographic position of the country, the nature of tourist
attractions, the severity of local climate change, and the capital and infrastructural capacity to
adapt. There is consequently a need for in-depth, location specific and community level
research into climate change and tourism to be undertaken. Such research has been
forthcoming over recent decades for the global North, from which the bulk of the
contemporary understanding of global relationships between climate change and tourism
originate. Very little research exists for the global South, and specifically Africa, as is
demonstrated throughout this review paper (Table 1, Figure 1).
Table 1. Summary of the literature on climate change and tourism in Africa
Author
Becker
Year
1998
Parish &
Funnell
Agrawala et al
1999
Country
South
Africa
Morocco
Climate Change Threats
Rising temperatures
Methods
Beach comfort index
Literature review
Egypt
Improved tourism from increased
temperatures
Sea level rise
2004
Hamilton et al
2005
Global
Increasing temperatures
PrestonWhyte &
Watson
2005
South
Africa
Lesotho
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Botswana
Swaziland
Theoretical: temperature increases,
altered precipitation patterns
Digital elevation model sea
level rise projections
Tourist arrival and departure
modelling
Theoretical discussion of
threats to nature based tourism
15
Gössling et al
2006
Tanzania
Ahmed &
Hefny
Amelung et al
2007
Egypt
2007
Global
Reid et al
2007
Namibia
Awuor et al
2008
Kenya
Increased precipitation, increased
humidity, more frequent storms
Theoretical: degradation of coral
reefs, sea level rise
Rising temperatures and altered
precipitation and humidity
Increasing temperatures, altered
precipitation, detrimental effects to
nature-based tourism
Theoretical: sea level rise, flooding
Snoussi et al
2008
Morocco
Sea level rise, flooding
Shaaban &
Ramzy
2010
Egypt
Agnew &
Viner
2011
Marshall et al
2011
South
Africa
Kenya
Tanzania
Egypt
Rising temperatures inducing greater
seasonal differences, coastal
degradation.
Theoretical: flooding, drought, land
degradation, wildlife redistribution
*Reddy
2012
Steyn
2012
Steyn &
Spencer
2012
South
Africa
Hambira et al
2013
Botswana
Saarinen et al
2013
Botswana
Increasing temperatures, altered
precipitation patterns
Theoretical: increased temperatures,
aridification, loss of fynbos species,
changes in wind speed, increased
ocean temperatures
Theoretical: temperature changes,
altered precipitation patterns, shifts in
seasonality, increased occurrence of
floods
Increased temperatures, altered
precipitation patterns, degradation of
vegetation
Degradation of natural resources
Sagoe-Addy
& Addo
2013
Ghana
Sea level rise
Mbaiwa &
Mmopelwa
Moswete &
Dube
Sajjad et al
2014
Botswana
Changing flooding patterns
2014
Botswana
2014
Dillimono &
Dickinson
*Grant
2015
SubSaharan
Africa
Nigeria
Theoretical impacts of climate
change to nature based tourism
Pollution
2015
South
South
Africa
South
Africa
Tourist perceptions of poor climate
Rising temperatures, changes in
precipitation patterns, pollution.
Increasing temperatures, altered
Interviews with tourists
Theoretical discussion of
potential threats
Calculating and mapping of
global TCI scores
Round table discussions
Theoretical discussion of
potential threats on the basis of
past disasters
Digital elevation model sea
level rise projections
Interviews with Egyptian
policymakers and tourism
managers
Theoretical discussion of
potential threats
Interviews with tourists and
tourism operators
Interviews with stakeholders in
nature based tourism
Theoretical discussion
Theoretical discussion
In depth interviews with
tourism operators
Interviews with tourism
operators
Modelled sea level rise,
interviews with tourism
operators
Interviews with tour operators
and lodge managers
Theoretical discussion
Multivariate regression
analysis
In depth interviews with
tourists
TCI, digital elevation model
16
Africa
precipitation patterns, changing
humidity, sea level rise, storm surges
Changing water levels in dams,
erratic rainfall, changing seasonality
Rising temperatures, changes in
precipitation patterns, sea level rise
Flooding related to tropical cyclones
Hambira &
Saarinen
Fitchett et al
2015
Botswana
2016
Fitchett et al.
2016
South
Africa
South
Africa
Hoogendoorn
et al
Köberl et al
2016
Rogerson
2016
2016
South
Africa
Tunisia
South
Africa
Increasing temperatures, sea level
rise, increased storm incidence
Increasing temperatures, altered
precipitation
Degradation of environmental
resources, increase in vector-borne
diseases
sea level rise projections,
interviews with tourists and
tourism operators
In depth interviews with
policymakers
TCI, digital elevation model
sea level rise projections
Economic assessment of costs
of flooding to tourism
establishments
Interviews with tourists and
tourism operators
Sensitivity analysis and linear
regression
Analysis of public statements,
theoretical discussion
* Postgraduate research dissertations
Although presently sparse, relative to the global North, research output on climate change
and tourism in Africa is increasing exponentially: almost two thirds of the total output has
been published since 2010 (Table 1). Although a considerable proportion of the research
stems from southern Africa, and in particular South Africa and Botswana, there is an
increasing diversity in the countries researched (Table 1, Figure 1). It is notable, that apart
from southern Africa, there is seldom regional clustering in research into tourism and climate
change, and notably little cross-border research (Figure 1). This is surprising as often political
borders are inconsistent with topographic and climatic spatial patterns, and as a consequence
adjacent countries may experience similarities in both tourism attractions and climate threats.
17
Figure 1. Distribution of research on climate change and tourism in Africa, with shaded areas
representing countries for which ground-based research has been conducted.
The existing research highlights foremost that the interpretations made on relationships
between tourism and climate change from the global North do not, necessarily hold true for
the global South. The global South is significantly more susceptible to the impacts of climate
change due to under-developed infrastructure, and lower-resolution warning systems.
Furthermore, for much of the global South, there are an array of urgent socio-economic issues
which require immediate intervention, which results in a lack of capital, policy development
and expertise for longer-term planning and adaptation. Where adaptation measures are being
18
implemented, they first need to be done to ensure basic human rights, before addressing
economic sectors, particularly those related to leisure. Long-term adaptation planning cannot
be at the forefront of their priorities, as often this is more costly than alternative which
provide adequately for the current needs and challenges. At the scale of individual
accommodation establishments, the volatile exchange rates of many countries of the global
South, their high risk entrepreneurial investments, and uncertainties about tourists preferences
make individual adaptation measures difficult. There appears often to be poor communication
between government and tourist establishments, which in turn, results in apathy from both
sides.
This literature review further highlights that there exists within the global South a range in
the severity and nature of climate change threats to the tourism sectors of individual
countries. Where broad conclusions may be drawn for the global North, this is not possible
from the global South or specifically the African continent. The contribution of the tourism
sectors to climate change in countries of the global South similarly cannot be extrapolated
from that of the global North. For many of these countries tourism is a rapidly growing
sector, often poorly understood or monitored. Climate change impacts on tourism therefore
critically threaten the broader economic strength and stability of these countries. For African
countries, tourist attractions are often predominantly outdoor, including beach and nature
based tourism, creating a greater reliance on the contemporary ameliorable climate.
Variations in the tourism product offered, in the political conditions, and in the need for basic
services will however critically control the potential for climate change adaptation within the
sector.
In-depth, location specific understanding of the inter-relationships between tourism and
climate change in the global South is imperative if timeous adaptation and mitigation are to
occur. The broad focus of this review, spanning the entire African continent, highlights that
such an approach requires far more intensive and focussed research on climate change and
tourism. The expansion of this research into developing countries can however be based on
well established, robust methodologies which have been developed in the global North,
provided they are applied with caution, considering the location-specific climate and tourism
characteristics. A range of climate tourism indices have been developed over recent decades
to quantify the climate suitability of a selection of locations to tourism (Amelung et al., 2007;
Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010). Whilst the ideal resolution and quality of climate data may not be
19
available in all countries (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2010), these indices can serve as initial models
which can be adapted to suit the available data (Becker, 1998). Global resolution satellite
data, when applied to regional elevation information, can provide useful projections of sea
level rise, and when paired with local accommodation establishment and infrastructure
positions, can be used in quantifying this risk (Fitchett et al., 2016; Sagoe-Addy & Addo,
2013). Perhaps the most valuable method for research into climate change and tourism in
developing countries is interviewing a range of stakeholders to obtain an understanding of
past climate-tourism interactions, their level of concern for climate change, and their
adaptation and mitigation strategies (Gössling et al., 2006; Hambira et al., 2013;
Hoogendoorn et al., 2016; Marshall et al., 2011; Shaaban & Ramzy, 2010).
Despite this array of well-established methodologies for exploring the threats of climate
change to tourism, a significant proportion of the research output for Africa relies on
theoretical discussions of the potential threats of climate change to tourism, based on broad
understandings of the reliance of tourism on the natural environment, and changes to these
components of the natural environment due to climate change (Table 1). Moreover, where
research is conducted at ground-level, it predominantly focuses on either tourism or climate
change. For example, numerous studies have very effectively explored the adaptation
strategies of tourism operators to climate change threats (Table 1), yet few explore the
climate science to determine whether such threats are of practical concern (Hoogendoorn et
al., 2016). We would argue that the most critical direction for future research is in directly
integrating the climate science with tourism research.
The tourism sector is a powerful driver of climate change itself (Simpson et al., 2008) and
tourism on the African continent is obviously not an innocent bystander in the contribution of
this problem. With the projected economic growth of African more generally the issue of
mitigation will become increasingly prominent. However, it is evident from this review that
the very scant information on adaptation requires particular focus and with the maturity of the
research field the issue of mitigation will ideally receive equal focus.
20
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